Wind Advisory 40, NWS Juneau, AK

201 
WWAK77 PAJK 031229
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
429 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

AKZ028-040300-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0040.110403T1800Z-110404T0300Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
429 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AK GULF SUNDAY WILL
  INCREASE WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SE
  ALASKA COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-023-027-040300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0040.110403T1500Z-110404T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
429 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AK GULF SUNDAY WILL
  INCREASE WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SE
  ALASKA COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

166 
WWAK77 PAJK 031235
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
435 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

AKZ022-023-027-032000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0040.110403T1500Z-110404T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
435 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AK GULF SUNDAY WILL 
  INCREASE WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE 
  SE ALASKA COAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-032000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0040.110403T1800Z-110404T0300Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
435 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AK GULF SUNDAY WILL 
  INCREASE WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE 
  SE ALASKA COAST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

&&

$$

237 
WWAK77 PAJK 031923
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1123 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

AKZ022-023-027-028-040300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-110404T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1123 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SE
  ALASKA COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

979 
WWAK77 PAJK 040246
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
646 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

AKZ022-023-027-028-040400-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-110404T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
646 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

THE WINDY SOUTHEAST GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SE AK TODAY
GRADUALLY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM ABOVE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS... SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND WEB CAMS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FROM ABOUT JNU NORTHWARD TO YAKUTAT.
CLOUD TOPS ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT MSL THEN CLEAR ABOVE. EXPECT
THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME SUNNIER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LESS CLOUD COVER ALREADY
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND DUE IN PART TO LIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW
WINDS. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY WILL WARM TEMPS TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

 DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED. 971 MB SFC LOW CENTER NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM IT.
CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THIS LOW FROM
INDONESIA. THERE IS AN ABRUPT END TO THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT ENCOUNTERS SPLIT FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF  THE RIDGE OVER SE AK TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND LARGE
SCALE ENSEMBLES INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING. THEY ALL MOVE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT
AND EAST OF AREA BY 18Z SUN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

 JETSTREAM GRAZES SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING THEN IS FCST
TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE LACK OF
JETSTREAM SUPPORT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RATES OF
CHANGE ON SUNDAY ...FALLING 2-3 MBS/HOUR... WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE. GALES FORECAST ALONG THE OUTER COAST SUN IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE FRONT VERY REASONABLE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS INNER CHANNELS. CONSIDERING ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY FOR COASTAL LAND ZONES AT LEAST ON SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE
MODEL MEMBERS HAVE LITTLE SPREAD IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
BOTH IN TIMING /STEADIEST RAINS 15Z SUN TO 12Z MON/ AND AMOUNTS
/BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM GLACIER BAY
SOUTHWARD/. NAM MODEL CONSITENTLY COLDER IN LOWER LEVELS THAN GFS
MODEL SO RAIN-SNOW QUESTIONS DEVELOP. SNOW LEVELS PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND GRID FORECASTS SLOPE FROM AROUND 2000 FT S PANHANDLE
SUN NIGHT TO BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FT NORTHERN PANHANDLE. PRECIP
RATES WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY ENOUGH /0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HR/ TO
DRIVE SNOW EVEN LOWER AT TIMES SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AK GULF LOW MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COAST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THAT TIME. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN AK GULF.
AS FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE WILL SEE LOWER POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING TO
ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
TRACKING INTO THE BERING SEA MID WEEK DEEPENING TO AN UNSEASONABLE
950 MB. THIS STRONG LOW WILL HELP BUILD THE RIDGE IN THE GULF.
WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER ON WED AS MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WITH PRECIP
RETURNING BY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THU BUT TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING OF THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MID WEEK. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS BEGINNING TO
SWITCH MODEL FAVOR. GFS NOW BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WHILE THE EC
SHOWING MORE VARIATION. USED A BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND 00Z EC WITH
INHERITED GRIDS OUT TO DAY 4 THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z HPC GUID.
MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES WITH WINDS IN THE GULF SUBSIDING A BIT
QUICKER. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE MID WEEK INVOLVES THE SPEED OF THE
BERING SEA LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE AK GULF. GFS
BREAKS DOWN THE AK GULF RIDGE FASTER THAN THE EC AND HAS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKING EAST FASTER. BY THIS TIME LIKED THE
SLOWER EC SOLUTION WHICH FOLLOWED ALONG WITH HPC USE OF EC
ENSEMBLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ022-023-027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035.

&&

TA/PRB