Gale Warning 207, NWS Juneau, AK

082 
FZAK51 PAJK 192310
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-201400-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL DRIFT SE TO BE OVER EASTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SUN AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. 

$$

PKZ011-201400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-201400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ013-201400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-201400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-201400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-201400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-201400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-201400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-201400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-201400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-201400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
450 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL SE AK WILL DRIFT SE
TO SRN SE AK TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN SE
AK TONIGHT. INVERTED TROF ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME
TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SEWD OVER NW CANADA.
WENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST AS IT WAS HANDLING THE
MAIN FEATURES BEST AT 06Z SAT.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK STRENGTH AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING...THEN
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL
SHIFT A BIT AS WELL...GOING FROM FAVORING MORE N-S CHANNELS TO
MORE NE-SW CHANNELS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE GALES TO START FOR
NRN LYNN CANAL WITH SCA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING NRN AND CENTRAL
CHANNELS. WILL ALSO HAVE SCA N-NW WINDS OVER THE SERN GULF AREA
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL THE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE PASSES WILL
CONTINUE ABOUT SAME STRENGTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THEM. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANY PUBLIC WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

 OTHERWISE...ENDED UP NUDGING TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT ESPECIALLY NRN
AREAS AS YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS WERE A TAD COOLER THAN
FORECAST...AND MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING THE SAME OR
LOWERING A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD SO
MAX TEMP FORECAST REMAINS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS. ABOUT THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IS A THIN HIGH CLOUD LAYER MOVING SSE
INTO THE NRN AREA THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS A FEW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SERN AREA AS TROF MOVES THERE AND TRIES
TO PULL IN SOME MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SSE. MOST AREAS
WERE KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT WENT PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SERN
AREA. ALL IN ALL...OTHER THAN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IT SHOULD
BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GOOD WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS IT
PROMOTES THE PRESENCE OF THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN
THE CANADIAN INTERIOR. THAT HIGH IS GENERATING OFFSHORE FLOW THAT
IS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. IT WILL
NOT LAST LONG AS AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND SHOVES IT EAST. THE BREAK DOWN
ATTEMPT WILL CAST IT AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE PANHANDLE TUES AFTERNOON.
FROM THERE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST AS A FEW WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURES MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MID
DAY THURS AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESUMES OVER THE AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS DECENT UP TO TUESDAY, THEN IT GOES DOWNHILL AS
THE MODELS CAN NOT AGREE ON WHAT TRACK A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL TAKE MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SWITCHED PLACES ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUNS. THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE THE LOW STREAKING THROUGH THE SW GULF AND NE
PACIFIC IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS LAST NIGHTS RUNS OF THE EC WERE
DEPICTING. MEANWHILE THE EC HAS FLIPPED TO A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHERLY ROUTE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING LAST NIGHT.
IN SHORT THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A LOW IN THE GULF MID
WEEK, BUT WHERE IT WILL BE AND HOW FAST IT MOVES IS STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. FOR FORECAST UPDATES DECIDED TO STICK WITH EC AND NAM FOR
MID RANGE UPDATES DUE TO GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY IN
THE MID RANGE. THEN RESORTED TO THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS TO GET A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MID RANGE AND THEN
DROPS TO POOR FOR MID WEEK ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

RWT/EAL