Wind Advisory 38, NWS Juneau, AK

347 
WWAK77 PAJK 191748
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
948 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AKZ018-025-200200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-110321T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
948 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

* WIND: FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR SKAGWAY. KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. 
  DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. DOUGLAS ISLAND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

359 
WWAK77 PAJK 192246
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AKZ018-025-200715-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-110321T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
246 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

* WIND: FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR SKAGWAY AND DOWNTOWN DOUGLAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

317 
WWAK77 PAJK 200629
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AKZ018-025-201315-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-110321T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
1029 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY. 

* WIND: FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR SKAGWAY AND SOUTH 
  DOUGLAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

762 
WWAK77 PAJK 201225
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
425 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

AKZ018-025-210000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-110321T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
425 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON.

* WIND: FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR SKAGWAY AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

033 
WWAK77 PAJK 202333
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

AKZ018-025-210045-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-110321T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
333 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
450 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL SE AK WILL DRIFT SE
TO SRN SE AK TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN SE
AK TONIGHT. INVERTED TROF ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME
TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SEWD OVER NW CANADA.
WENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST AS IT WAS HANDLING THE
MAIN FEATURES BEST AT 06Z SAT.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK STRENGTH AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING...THEN
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL
SHIFT A BIT AS WELL...GOING FROM FAVORING MORE N-S CHANNELS TO
MORE NE-SW CHANNELS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE GALES TO START FOR
NRN LYNN CANAL WITH SCA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING NRN AND CENTRAL
CHANNELS. WILL ALSO HAVE SCA N-NW WINDS OVER THE SERN GULF AREA
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL THE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE PASSES WILL
CONTINUE ABOUT SAME STRENGTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THEM. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANY PUBLIC WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

 OTHERWISE...ENDED UP NUDGING TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT ESPECIALLY NRN
AREAS AS YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS WERE A TAD COOLER THAN
FORECAST...AND MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING THE SAME OR
LOWERING A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD SO
MAX TEMP FORECAST REMAINS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS. ABOUT THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IS A THIN HIGH CLOUD LAYER MOVING SSE
INTO THE NRN AREA THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS A FEW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SERN AREA AS TROF MOVES THERE AND TRIES
TO PULL IN SOME MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SSE. MOST AREAS
WERE KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT WENT PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SERN
AREA. ALL IN ALL...OTHER THAN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IT SHOULD
BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GOOD WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS IT
PROMOTES THE PRESENCE OF THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN
THE CANADIAN INTERIOR. THAT HIGH IS GENERATING OFFSHORE FLOW THAT
IS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. IT WILL
NOT LAST LONG AS AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND SHOVES IT EAST. THE BREAK DOWN
ATTEMPT WILL CAST IT AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE PANHANDLE TUES AFTERNOON.
FROM THERE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST AS A FEW WEAK
FRONTAL FEATURES MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MID
DAY THURS AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESUMES OVER THE AREA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS DECENT UP TO TUESDAY, THEN IT GOES DOWNHILL AS
THE MODELS CAN NOT AGREE ON WHAT TRACK A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL TAKE MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SWITCHED PLACES ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUNS. THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE THE LOW STREAKING THROUGH THE SW GULF AND NE
PACIFIC IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS LAST NIGHTS RUNS OF THE EC WERE
DEPICTING. MEANWHILE THE EC HAS FLIPPED TO A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHERLY ROUTE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING LAST NIGHT.
IN SHORT THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A LOW IN THE GULF MID
WEEK, BUT WHERE IT WILL BE AND HOW FAST IT MOVES IS STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. FOR FORECAST UPDATES DECIDED TO STICK WITH EC AND NAM FOR
MID RANGE UPDATES DUE TO GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY IN
THE MID RANGE. THEN RESORTED TO THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS TO GET A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MID RANGE AND THEN
DROPS TO POOR FOR MID WEEK ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

RWT/EAL