Gale Warning 198, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE'S SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. ALSO AS THIS LOW IS
LIFTING NORTH IT IS INCREASING THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MARINE WATERS AND NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES ARE PICKING UP. FROM PAGN NORTHWARD THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

 A UPPER TROF OVER THE YUKON WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS AND PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LIFTING NORTH WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY.
STEADY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WITH THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCING ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN NORTHERN LYNN. FOR THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS 40 TO 45 KT GALES WILL BE DOMINANT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT FROM INTERIOR PASSES AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE STORMS IN
NORTHERN LYNN WILL RELAX BY THE AFTERNOON.

OVER LAND...THERE ARE A FEW WIND ADVY FOR ZONE 17,18,19,23 AND 25
MAINLY OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. MOST OF THESES ADVY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SO
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF
SITKA WILL RELAX SO THAT ADVY IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 5 AM. OTHER LAND
AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND FOR THE FORECAST USED A
BLEND OF THE 00ZEC AND 12Z NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH STATIONARY OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMES A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA
ON FRIDAY THAT RETREATS NORTH BY NEXT MONDAY. A COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND.

STRONG NE OUTFLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS NEXT LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL BRING MAX GALES AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND THICKENING CLOUDS AND LIKELY LIGHT
PRECIP TO SOUTHERN AND HIGH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE
NORTH. CAA CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST WITH NIGHT TIMES LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN EXPECTED TO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE TRICKY FOR SOUTHERN WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.

A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GULF SATURDAY THAT DISSIPATES
ACROSS NE GULF SUNDAY. NE GALES CONTINUE FOR NRN INNER CHANNELS BUT
WILL SE A SHIFT TO SE WINDS ACROSS SRN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH SECOND TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ALTHOUGH POPS
HERE CURRENTLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY BUT IF END UP WITH A DEEPER SW
FLOW WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OVERRUNNING SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL.

THE THIRD SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SEEM TO USHER IN A CHANGE WITH NELY ENDING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS MOVING IN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. WENT WITH RAIN SOUTH AND A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTH.

OVERALL HAD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. USED NAM
12 TO UPDATE GRIDS THROUGH DAY 3.5 AND HPC OR A GFS/EC BLEND BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ017>019-025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

ABJ/MM