Gale Warning 197, NWS Juneau, AK

830 
FZAK52 PAJK 101230
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110100-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS EVENING. PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRI.  

$$

PKZ041-110100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO
9 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-110100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-110100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. 

.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-110100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-110100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF ICY BAY. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE'S SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. ALSO AS THIS LOW IS
LIFTING NORTH IT IS INCREASING THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MARINE WATERS AND NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES ARE PICKING UP. FROM PAGN NORTHWARD THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

 A UPPER TROF OVER THE YUKON WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS AND PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LIFTING NORTH WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY.
STEADY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WITH THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCING ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION. THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN NORTHERN LYNN. FOR THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS 40 TO 45 KT GALES WILL BE DOMINANT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT FROM INTERIOR PASSES AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE STORMS IN
NORTHERN LYNN WILL RELAX BY THE AFTERNOON.

OVER LAND...THERE ARE A FEW WIND ADVY FOR ZONE 17,18,19,23 AND 25
MAINLY OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. MOST OF THESES ADVY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SO
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF
SITKA WILL RELAX SO THAT ADVY IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 5 AM. OTHER LAND
AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND FOR THE FORECAST USED A
BLEND OF THE 00ZEC AND 12Z NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH STATIONARY OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMES A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA
ON FRIDAY THAT RETREATS NORTH BY NEXT MONDAY. A COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND.

STRONG NE OUTFLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS NEXT LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL BRING MAX GALES AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND THICKENING CLOUDS AND LIKELY LIGHT
PRECIP TO SOUTHERN AND HIGH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE
NORTH. CAA CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST WITH NIGHT TIMES LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN EXPECTED TO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE TRICKY FOR SOUTHERN WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WET BULB
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.

A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GULF SATURDAY THAT DISSIPATES
ACROSS NE GULF SUNDAY. NE GALES CONTINUE FOR NRN INNER CHANNELS BUT
WILL SE A SHIFT TO SE WINDS ACROSS SRN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH SECOND TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ALTHOUGH POPS
HERE CURRENTLY IN CHANCE CATEGORY BUT IF END UP WITH A DEEPER SW
FLOW WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OVERRUNNING SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL.

THE THIRD SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SEEM TO USHER IN A CHANGE WITH NELY ENDING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS MOVING IN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. WENT WITH RAIN SOUTH AND A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTH.

OVERALL HAD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. USED NAM
12 TO UPDATE GRIDS THROUGH DAY 3.5 AND HPC OR A GFS/EC BLEND BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ017>019-025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

ABJ/MM