Gale Warning 186, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Mar 5, 2011, 11:30 AM AKST (20:30 UTC)

Expired

Mar 5, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

420 
FZAK51 PAJK 052028 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060100-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 983 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF CURVES TO THE
WEST TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY
MORNING. A DEVELOPING 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
NORTH AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA. 

$$

PKZ011-060100-
GLACIER BAY-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-060100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-060100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-060100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-060100-
CROSS SOUND-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-060100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-060100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-060100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-060100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-060100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-060100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

UPDATED 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 5, 5:57 AM AKST, 5 hours 33 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 985 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
WILL MOVE WEST TODAY AND WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A DEVELOPING 995 MB LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH OF FFIA2 THIS MORNING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SE. HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
FRONT. STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN DOWN-SLOPING
OVER NIGHT WHICH HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
AT MANY LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH DEW POINT REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGIT.
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT WINDS BECOME SELY AND DIMINISH QUICKLY
ALLOWING FOR ATMO TO MOISTEN UP AND COOL DOWN. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH.

WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO UPPER 30S SOUTH AND NEAR FREEZING NORTH.
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT FOR PAGY AREA.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES INTO GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
DUMBBELLS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY STRONGER PARENT LOW. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN ENOUGH MOISTER
INTO EASTERN GULF FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COAST AND
SOUTHERN ZONES ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS IN
COASTAL WATERS AT GALES.

EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AS NLY GRADIENTS
REBUILD. THIS WILL KEEP GALES GOING IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH
WIND ADVISORY IN PAGY. WILL SEE CAA IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPS
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEEN AND EVEN INTO SINGLE DIGITS HAINES
ROAD. WIND CHILLS NEAR WHITE PASS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS SO WINTER WX ADVSRY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. FARTHER SOUTH
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIMITED TO GAPS LIKE IN TAKU INLET AND NRN
GLACIER BAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT OPTED FOR THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE AND HAD NLY
GRADIENT BETTER SITUATED ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL WEAK AND THEREFORE WEAKER
ARCTIC OUTFLOW WILL FROM CANADA, AND WEAKER LOWS AND FRONTAL
SYSTEMS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PACKAGE ARE SMALL, AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

LARGE SCALE: LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY XTENDING
SSW M OVER CYDA TO OVER PACV AND TO THE SSW IS FILLING, AND WILL
BE REPLACED BY A SIMILAR TROUGH ALOFT FILLING IN A SIMILAR WAY
BEGINNING ABT 00Z WED. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS IS A BROAD AND LOW
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE ALOFT THAT IS TO EXTEND NW OVER PADQ 18Z
SUN, AND NW ALG THE PNHDL 00Z TUE.

THE SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS THE PARENT FEATURE FOR A
ROUGHLY 996 MB LOW THAT ABOUT 12Z TUE WILL BE 200 NM SW OF PASI.
THE WILL MOVE NW AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER AND SEND A WEAKENING OCFNT TO
WI 100 NM SW OF A PASI-PAKT LINE. THIS FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ONSHORE
AND WILL LENGTHEN AND WEAKEN WED.

A NAM TO GFS CONSENSUS WAS USED AS THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE THROUGH
12Z MON, WITH THE NAM EMPHASIZED DUE TO TERRAIN ISSUES. THE NAM
RUN FROM 0500Z. WAS USED FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH 06Z MON. THE NEW NAM
RUN CAME IN ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE OLD FOR 12Z MON. FEWER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR 12Z MON TO 12Z
TUE, AND FEWER STILL THRFTR.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>036.

&&

MM/JBT

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.