Gale Warning 165, NWS Juneau, AK

802 
FZAK67 PAJK 051244
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-060100-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF CURVES TO THE
WEST TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY
MORNING. A DEVELOPING 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
NORTH AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA. 

$$

PKZ310-060100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 5 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 PM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...LOW WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK TO THE WEST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND FROM INTERIOR PASSES. IT IS
ALSO PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON THE SE SIDE OF BARANOF ISLAND
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WITH THAT SAID
HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 23 AND ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCORPORATE THE SNOW FALL OF 1 TO 5 INCHES BY
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH THE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TO WARM FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOW THROUGH THE DAY BUT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
BEFORE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVES OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY STRONG
WINDS NEAR THE JUNEAU AREAS WITH TAKU WINDS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 70 MPH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE WEST THE TAKU'S
WILL DIMINISH BY DAY BREAK BUT STRONG GUSTS MAY PERSIST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TO BE TIGHT THROUGH SAT SO EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVY FOR ZONE 19 AND WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR ZONE
18 THROUGH 4 PM SAT.

 OVER THE MARINE WATERS STORM FORCES WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH
THROUGH SAT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AS THE WINDS DECREASE THE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THE REST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE THE SOLID GALES DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT TO BE
SMALL CRAFT AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BE AROUND 20 KT BY SAT
AFTERNOON. OVER THE GULF THE STRONG GUSTS FROM CROSS SOUND AND
FROM THE INTERIOR PASSES IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY THEY SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH SAT.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...A COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD HIGH IN THE CANADIAN
INTERIOR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER. COLD OUTFLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL NOT BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY THAT IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE ABOUT HALF THE INTENSITY THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN DISPLAYING THIS WEEK. WINDS IN LYNN CANAL WILL ONLY BE
BLOWING MAX SMALL CRAFT TO MIN GALE WITH WINDS HOVERING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KT IN MOST INNER CHANNEL LOCATIONS. TAKU WINDS WILL
ALSO NOT BE A PROBLEM AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST
PART BE NON-EXISTENT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ALSO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE OUTFLOW KEEPS
A WEAK FRONT STATIONARY OUT IN THE GULF.

 MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BRINGS SOME CHANGE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TUESDAY STARTS BRINGING IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIP, MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DISSIPATES THE LOW BEFORE IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE PANHANDLE.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW AS THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS
STILL RATHER COLD BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIP WILL NOT
GET MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGH IN CANADA WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED OUTFLOW AND DOWNSLOPING OVER THE NORTH. NEXT COLD SHOT
COMES LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE YUKON.

 MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER GOOD IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, ABOUT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
START HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WHEN THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF IS
REPLACE BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK. DECIDED TO USE NAM FOR MID
RANGE FORECAST DUE TO GOOD INITIALIZATION. EXTENDED FORECAST WAS
UPDATED WITH A BLEND TO HPC WITH A BIT OF THE GFS THROWN IN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ023-024.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ017-020-022-029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-041-042-051-052.

&&

ABJ/EAL