Gale Warning 116, NWS Juneau, AK

433 
FZAK52 PAJK 070501 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-072315-
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DISSIPATE AND TRACK EAST INTO
CANADA TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
INTO MON. 

$$

PKZ041-072315-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-072315-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-072315-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-072315-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-072315-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
801 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

612 
FZAK52 PAJK 071222
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-080100-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DISSIPATE AND TRACK EAST INTO
CANADA TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
INTO MON. 

$$

PKZ041-080100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-080100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-080100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-080100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-080100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 7 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
224 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. FROM
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER DIXON ENTRANCE
AND CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON
AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF. AREAS
NORTH OF FREDRICK SOUND HAVE REMAINED DRY WITH HIGH OVER CAST
SKIES...AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE SEE SNOW, RAIN AND A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HAS SUPPLIED THIS LOW WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE BUT IS NOW MOVED TOWARD SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ZONE
27 REMAINED SNOW LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING ABOVE FREEZING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS NOT AS HIGH COMPARED
TO QPF VALUES. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RAINING
FROM 0 TO 4 INCHES TODAY WITH LESS THAN A INCH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HYDER AND ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS WHERE TOTALS WILL NEAR 8 INCHES. PRECIP WILL DROP OFF
FAIRLY ABRUPTLY THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS EAST. BEHIND THE LOW COLD AIR IS MOVING
IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
TODAY. TAKU EVENT OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GOOD CROSS BARRIER FLOW,
NICE INVERSION AND THE CRITICAL LEVEL AROUND 500 MB. AS THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST WILL SEE THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISH
ALONG WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS. COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND COLD AIR POOL IN THE YUKON. NORTHERN
REGIONS MAY DROP TO THE MID TEENS AS THE MAY BE SOME CLEAR BREAKS
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH DULLER DAY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE, DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING
WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST WITH THE DIXON ENTRANCE LOW AND NAM BEING
THE STRONGEST. NUDGED GRIDS THE THE 12Z NAM BUT OVER ALL CHANGES
WERE MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF SNOW ENDING FOR
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A
990 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK...MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. A WAVE ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NORTH PACIFIC LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME MODELS DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS WITH EC THEN TRACKING LOW SE AND SOUTH OF PANHANDLE
WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A RESIDUAL LOW IN NE GULF THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

WILL SEE DRY AND COLDER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAA
SHIFTS INTO HIGH GEAR TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN-SNOW LINE PUSHING INLAND
OVER NIGHT AND PROBABLY CLEARING INNER CHANNELS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. FAR
NORTH WILL HOLD ONTO COLD AIR INTO WED NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR HAINES HIGHWAY WHERE SIG ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SIGNIFICANT SW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND WARM FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN FALLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A VARIETY SOLUTIONS TO
CHOOSE FROM. GENERAL TREND SHOWS A SLOW COOLING TREND WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP SO TRENDED TOWARDS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. USED THE 12Z NAM12 FOR GRIDS THROUGH
DAY 3.5 AND TRANSITIONED TO HPC BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

PRB/MM