Gale Warning 115, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
224 PM AKST SUN FEB 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. FROM
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER DIXON ENTRANCE
AND CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON
AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF. AREAS
NORTH OF FREDRICK SOUND HAVE REMAINED DRY WITH HIGH OVER CAST
SKIES...AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE SEE SNOW, RAIN AND A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HAS SUPPLIED THIS LOW WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE BUT IS NOW MOVED TOWARD SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ZONE
27 REMAINED SNOW LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING ABOVE FREEZING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS NOT AS HIGH COMPARED
TO QPF VALUES. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RAINING
FROM 0 TO 4 INCHES TODAY WITH LESS THAN A INCH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HYDER AND ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS WHERE TOTALS WILL NEAR 8 INCHES. PRECIP WILL DROP OFF
FAIRLY ABRUPTLY THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS EAST. BEHIND THE LOW COLD AIR IS MOVING
IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
TODAY. TAKU EVENT OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GOOD CROSS BARRIER FLOW,
NICE INVERSION AND THE CRITICAL LEVEL AROUND 500 MB. AS THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH MOVES EAST WILL SEE THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISH
ALONG WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS. COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND COLD AIR POOL IN THE YUKON. NORTHERN
REGIONS MAY DROP TO THE MID TEENS AS THE MAY BE SOME CLEAR BREAKS
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE A MUCH DULLER DAY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE, DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING
WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST WITH THE DIXON ENTRANCE LOW AND NAM BEING
THE STRONGEST. NUDGED GRIDS THE THE 12Z NAM BUT OVER ALL CHANGES
WERE MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF SNOW ENDING FOR
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A
990 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK...MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. A WAVE ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NORTH PACIFIC LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME MODELS DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS WITH EC THEN TRACKING LOW SE AND SOUTH OF PANHANDLE
WHILE GFS HOLDS ONTO A RESIDUAL LOW IN NE GULF THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

WILL SEE DRY AND COLDER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAA
SHIFTS INTO HIGH GEAR TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN-SNOW LINE PUSHING INLAND
OVER NIGHT AND PROBABLY CLEARING INNER CHANNELS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. FAR
NORTH WILL HOLD ONTO COLD AIR INTO WED NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR HAINES HIGHWAY WHERE SIG ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SIGNIFICANT SW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND WARM FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN FALLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A VARIETY SOLUTIONS TO
CHOOSE FROM. GENERAL TREND SHOWS A SLOW COOLING TREND WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP SO TRENDED TOWARDS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SATURDAY TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. USED THE 12Z NAM12 FOR GRIDS THROUGH
DAY 3.5 AND TRANSITIONED TO HPC BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

PRB/MM