Small Craft Advisory 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

624 
FZAK51 PAFG 042141
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-051245-
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH
MON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA.

$$

PKZ225-051245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-051245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-051245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-051245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-051245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
141 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

TF/CC SEP 11

086 
FZAK51 PAFG 051100
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-060200-
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH
TUE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ225-060200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-060200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-060200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-060200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-060200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
300 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/DJH SEP 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE WEST COAST MARINE AREAS...AND INCREASING
WINDS OVER NEARBY LAND AREAS.

CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER PROGS TODAY AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH
00Z WED AND HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE CORRESPONDING MODEL
RUNS AVAILABLE YESTERDAY AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING
RUNS. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS HIGH.

18Z SYNOPTIC PLOT INDICATES A SURFACE LOW AROUND 1003 MB OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...AND THE CURRENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS FEATURE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING THROUGH
00Z MON. FORECAST POSITION FOR 00Z MON WILL BE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980-982 MB. SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER DEEPENING OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY 00Z TUE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955-960 MB.

ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING TODAY WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY...REINFORCED BY A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER LOW DROPPING TO TYPICAL MID-WINTER
VALUES BY 12Z MON AS THE CENTER DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK. LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
NORTHERLY GALES TO 40-50 MPH EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER
PKZ210-PKZ220-AKZ213 EARLY MON. SEAS TO 11-13 FEET DEVELOPING IN
PKZ210...AND IN PKZ220 AND THE BERING STRAIT AREA...BY MON
AFTERNOON. WAVES MAY DECREASE SOME AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...BUT WILL STILL BE HIGH.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN AREAS ALONG THE NORTH
FACING SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE VILLAGE OF
SAVOONGA. AT SAVOONGA...THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BEACH
EROSION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE ROAD TO THE DUMP AND NEAR THE
BOAT LANDING AND WHALING AREA. HIGH SEAS TO 11-13 FEET MAY PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AT LITTLE DIOMEDE BEGINNING MON. LITTLE
OR NO STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED SO THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE MINIMAL AT LITTLE DIOMEDE OR ON THE NORTH SHORE OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA FROM SHISMAREF
WEST...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH MON...
PRODUCING SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET OFFSHORE. AT SHISMAREF...WAVES TO
AROUND 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE AT SHISMAREF...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE THAN
AT SAVOONGA OR LITTLE DIOMEDE. COASTAL FLOODING IS UNLIKELY AT
SHISHMAREF WITH LITTLE OR NO STORM SURGE EXPECTED.

STRONG WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING WED.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

RF SEP 11