Small Craft Advisory 72, NWS Fairbanks, AK

799 
FZAK52 PAFG 121141
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130200-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE TO POINT LAY AS A
1010 MB LOW BY FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A 1033
MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND MOVE WESTWARD.

$$

PKZ200-130200-
NORTON SOUND-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT...DIMINISHING AROUND NOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-130200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-130200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

CF/DJH AUG 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1209 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS BUILD THE BERING SEA UPPER RIDGE A BIT MORE
THROUGH FRI...THEN INDICATE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. BROAD ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN AK MAINLAND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS...ECMWF MOVES AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE CNTRL INTERIOR SAT...WHICH IS FASTER
THAN GFS/NAM AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH PUT THE LOW CENTER
OVER THE NW AK COAST AT THE SAME TIME. THE 11/00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS IN THE SHORT TERM...SO AT THIS
TIME WE PREFER THE CONSENSUS AND WILL REJECT THE FASTER SOLUTION
SHOWN BY THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SWRN GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE
TO THE SRN CHUKCHI SEA BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVER THE NRN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE SMOOTH
UPPER RIDGE. OVER THE WEST COAST...RAIN OVER MOST AREAS
WILL BECOME SHOWERY IN NATURE BY FRI AFTERNOON. RAIN OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND FRI...LIKELY
BECOMING SHOWERY FRI NIGHT. RAIN OR SHOWERS SPREADING
TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRI NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
SAT AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SEWD.

EXTENDED FORECAST...GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER NRN AK FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER MOST AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUT OF THE
ACTIVE STORM TRACK...THE CHANCE OF ANY STORMS IN THE BERING OR
ARCTIC REGIONS APPEARS TO BE LOW. THE FORECAST OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC BECOMES UNCERTAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IN MOVING A VORTEX SWD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

RF AUG 11