Small Craft Advisory 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

930 
FZAK52 PAFG 112213
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-121315-
213 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THU
NIGHT. A LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
BERING STRAIT BY FRI MORNING. A 1033 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM NORTH
OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE WESTWARD.

$$

PKZ200-121315-
NORTON SOUND-
213 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-121315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
213 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-121315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
213 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-121315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
213 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

RL/RF AUG 11

799 
FZAK52 PAFG 121141
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130200-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE TO POINT LAY AS A
1010 MB LOW BY FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A 1033
MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND MOVE WESTWARD.

$$

PKZ200-130200-
NORTON SOUND-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT...DIMINISHING AROUND NOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-130200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-130200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
341 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

CF/DJH AUG 11

403 
FZAK52 PAFG 122244
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131200-
244 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR POINT LAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. A 1030 MB
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF WRANGELL ISLAND BUILD
SOUTH OVER THE NORTH BERING SEA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-131200-
NORTON SOUND-
244 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-131200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
244 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT...STRONGEST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-131200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
244 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-131200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
244 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER NOON. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

RL/JL AUG 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
243 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE GET GO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
CHARACTERISTICS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF. THE BIG DISCREPANCY RIGHT OFF
OF THE BAT IS THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
FRI. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IS HELD CLOSE UNTIL ABOUT 06Z FRI
WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE NAM HAS THE SURFACE LOW MUCH DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND FURTHER WEST.

THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT HANGS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BACK WHILE THE ECMWF RUNS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN TO ABOUT
PAXSON WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW NEAR KOTZEBUE BY THE SAME
TIME FRAME. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND FIELD.
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN ZONES 210...220...225...230 AND 235
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO ZONE 224 AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA OF INFLUENCE.

THE OLD TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE SEA OF JAPAN HAS MOVED INTO THE
BERING SEA BRINGING WITH IT A PLETHORA OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
BY EARLY SAT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
LOSE ITS WARM PUNCH AS IT MOVES EAST THOUGH.

THE NCEP RMOPS CONTINUE TO PAINT LOW MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN AK DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST RUSSIA TO THE EAST
SIBERIAN ISLANDS.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.  AT THE START
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OUT
OF FAR EAST RUSSIA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA AND DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MAINLAND...BUT THE DETAILS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
SIDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT THE
LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS COMPLEX TROUGH.
LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF BECOMES A STRONG
OUTLIER WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND INTO NORTHERN AK.  THIS SOLUTION HAS NO SUPPORT FROM EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND WAS DISCARDED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.
&&

CF AUG 11