Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

059 
FZAK51 PAFG 121053
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-130030-
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1027 MB HIGH 450 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1021 MB BY 4 AM AKDT WED. A 991 MB LOW
100 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. AT 4AM AKDT
WED...THE LOW WILL BE 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF GAMBELL. AT 4 AM AKDT
THU...THE LOW WILL 1004 MB 170 NM NORTHEAST OF GAMBELL.

$$

PKZ225-130030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-130030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-130030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-130030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-130030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
253 AM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

JUL 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 PM AKDT MON JUL 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
WITHIN THEMSELVES AS WELL FROM MODEL TO MODEL. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS HAVE THE 500H LOW IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION HOWEVER THE
NAM CONTINUES TO CARRY A CLOSED LOW AT 700H WHICH APPEARS TO BE
CLOSER TO REALITY. COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH IS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

BY 06Z THIS EVENING...THE NAM DOES AWAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT 700H AND MODIFIES THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT AT 850H. AT THE SAME
TIME THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO SURFACE LOW
MOVING TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

THE NEW LOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE BERING SEA IS BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE FOREVER LASTING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING AND IT
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS WELL. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SET UP OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA AND WILL BEGIN PROVIDING STRATIFORM
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE
SOUTHWARD. THERMAL TROUGH FROM ABOUT NORTHWAY TO BETTLES WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND LEAVE A MUCH MORE STABLE
AIR MASS BEHIND IN ITS RETREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER AROUND FOR MANY DAYS AND WEAKEN AND THEN STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL ONLY SERVE TO INCREASE
THE WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.

GFS 18Z RUN SHOWS AN EXTREMELY UNCOMMON SITUATION OCCURRING
BEGINNING AT ABOUT 72 HOURS AS COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SLIDES EAST. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THAT IT IS SPILLING 850H TEMPERATURES OF 0C DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. WILL NOT PUT MUCH FAITH IN THAT SUGGESTION
AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL
CAUSE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOVE UP THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY TONIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WEST OF AN ARCTIC VILLAGE TO BIG DELTA
LINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT RISING RH VALUES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF JUL 11