Gale Warning 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

981 
FZAK52 PAFG 130048 AAA
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
448 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

UPDATED PKZ200 FOR A GALE WARNING TONIGHT

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131515-
448 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1023 MB HIGH 450 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1021 MB BY 4 AM AKDT WED. A 996 MB LOW
100 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST. AT 4AM AKDT
WED...THE LOW WILL BE ON THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. AT 4 AM AKDT
THU...THE LOW WILL 1003 MB NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA.

$$

PKZ200-131515-
NORTON SOUND-
448 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

UPDATED FOR A GALE WARNING TONIGHT

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.WED...S WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING
TO 6 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG... RAIN. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-131515-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
448 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-131515-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
448 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.  
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-131515-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
448 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

CF/DJH/CB JUL 11

027 
FZAK52 PAFG 131111
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140215-
311 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 999 MB LOW 100 MILES NORTH OF GAMBELL WILL WEAKEN TO 1005 MB 150
MILES NORTHEAST OF GAMBELL THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND FRI.

$$

PKZ200-140215-
NORTON SOUND-
311 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-140215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
311 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-140215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
311 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-140215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
311 AM AKDT WED JUL 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

/RT JUL 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT OCCLUDED FRONT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR WILL FALL APART
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. A BREAK OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHOOT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
END UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE PUTTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA
IN SOUTHERN ZONE 224...226 AND 223 BY WED EVENING. IF THIS COMES
TRUE...WE MAY VERY WELL HAVE HYDRO ISSUES THRUST UPON US AS THE
MODELS ARE GENERATING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 2 INCH RANGE OVER 24 HOUR
PERIOD.

MODELS IF FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME FRAME THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY. THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF TAKE THE BERING STRAIT LOW EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY EARLY FRI MORNING BUT WITH POSITIONING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF IS A MUCH COLDER AND LOWER HEIGHT FEATURE
WHILE THE GFS IS ALTHOUGH WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHT IS ABOUT 70 DM
HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. THE POSITION IS ALSO A DIFFERENCE WITH THE
ECMWF POSITIONED NEAR EMMONAK AND THE GFS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED NEAR KALTAG. ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWARD
WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW DUE EASTWARD SO THAT THE ECMWF LOW IS
ON THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH OF AMBLER AND THE GFS LOW IS NEAR
MINCHUMINA BY SAT EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER AT 850H THOUGH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
AND RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT AND NO WET THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING WED EVENING AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THU WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND JUST WESTWARD A BIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

CF JUL 11