Small Craft Advisory 183, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1232 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE PROGGED DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR
STORM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE ALASKA
WEST COAST SAT THROUGH SUN. 01/12Z NAM AND GFS RUNS DIFFER IN
TIMING...01/12Z GFS RUN AGREES WELL WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE
FORECAST POSITION 12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z SUN. THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE
NAM AND THE 01/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE RUNNING AROUND
9 HR OR SLOWER IN THIS GENERAL TIME FRAME. THE 01/18Z NAM RUN HAS
JUST COME IN AND IT IS LINING UP MUCH CLOSER TO THE 01/12Z
GFS...SO WE WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THESE TWO RUNS
FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN
CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND THE GFS/NAM.

MODELS AGREE WELL ON STRONG CHINOOK WIND EVENT IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...700 MB WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
MAXING OUT AROUND 90 KT.

MAJOR WEATHER EXPECTED...
AKZ213...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EARLY SAT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT EVENING. WINDS
GUSTING TO 60-70 MPH DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

AKZ214...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SAT INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AKZ215-AKZ216...HEAVY SNOW IN MANY AREAS EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

AKZ227...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PARTS SAT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

AKZ225-AKZ226...STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN PASSES SOUTH OF THE
TOK CUTOFF SAT THROUGH SUN. LOCAL GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

AKZ227...WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN PASSES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

AKZ201...INCREASING WINDS SAT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. BLIZZARD WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED EARLY FRI.

AKZ220-AKZ221...SOUTHWEST WINDS 35-50 MPH OVER HIGHER SUMMITS
ON THE STEESE/ELLIOT HIGHWAYS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
FRI NIGHT. POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW.

AKZ219...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FRI MORNING OR FRI AFTERNOON.

AKZ221...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FRI MORNING OR FRI AFTERNOON.

SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

RF DEC 11