Brisk Wind Advisory 169, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HANDLING THE CURRENT SYSTEM WELL...BUT ARE CONFLICTED ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA IN THE
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW. THEY DO AGREE THOUGH ON THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEEKEND AND CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.

ALOFT...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AT
500 MB WILL COLLAPSE AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY TO RIDE OVER THE TOP. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE STATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SATURDAY MORNING
TO THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY
EVENING STRONG SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AT
700 MB. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT 6 TO 10 BELOW CELSIUS THEN WARM TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS LATE
SATURDAY AND TO AROUND 5 ABOVE CELSIUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SURFACE...988 MB LOW IN KUSKOKWIM BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 1001 MB NEAR BETTLES THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN AS A
1008 MB LOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. 982 MB LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE UNSURE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO AM LEANING
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL THAT HAS THE LOW MOVING TO NEAR NUNIVAK
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TO BETTLES FRIDAY MORNING THEN EXITING THE
STATE EARLY SATURDAY. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SEE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST INTERIOR COMMUNITIES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. STRONG CHINOOK DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN INTERIOR.

INTERIOR...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH MAY
SEE A LITTLE WARM BUMP IN TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW THURSDAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TO MOST INTERIOR AREAS. CHINOOK ON TAP FOR SUNDAY
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY.

WEST COAST...SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MORNING FOR ZONE 216
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW BRINGING ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF GALENA TONIGHT. SNOW
TAPERING OFF FROM ANVIK SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ON
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS.
MAJOR ISSUES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR INTERIOR WEST COAST WITH VERY
WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF GALENA...THIS MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON DELTA EAST OF MARSHALL.

ARCTIC COAST...QUIET TIMES CONTINUE. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES OR
EVEN A PERIOD OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB NOV 11