Small Craft Advisory 163, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH GFS PREFERRED BASED
UPON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF LOW NOW SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN TAKING THE 969 MB LOW MENTIONED ABOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF PADQ BY 10 AM FRIDAY. AN
ELONGATED LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

WSW ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES 214 215 AND 216 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ATTM AT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST
SOUTH OF PAOT. PEAK WIND GUST TO 53 KTS NOTED AT PACZ WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ACROSS ZONE 214. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF.

WIND ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 227 AND 225 AS THE TIGHT
GRADIENT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WITH DEEP BERING LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN ZONE 227 AND NEAR SUNRISE FOR ZONE 225. GUST TO 55 KTS
NOTED AT ANTLER CREEK IN ZONE 225.

HOISTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 219 AND 221 BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR. 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS.

VERY PROGRESSIVE AND STORMY PATTER SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER POWERFUL BERING SEA LOW IS INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR TRACK AND STRENGTH AS TODAYS
SYSTEM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225.
&&

CC NOV 11