Brisk Wind Advisory 148, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX AND FAST MOVING WX PATTERN FOR MOST OF NRN ALASKA NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE PROSPECT OF A MAJOR BERING SEA STORM MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

A 986 TRIPLE POINT LOW NE OF KODIAK MOVG TO S OF PAMD BY 4PM. 1011
MB SFC HIGH OF NW BERING SEA BUILDING TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY
4PM AND THENCE INTO THE WRN INTERIOR SAT AM. MEANWHILE...NEW SFC
LOW DVLPG NEAR THE PRIBILOFS SAT AM MOVG INTO BRISTOL BAY SUN
AM...AGAIN WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPG IN THE NRN GLF OF ALASKA.

NORTH SLOPE...RELATIVELY QUITE WX ON THE SLOPE FOR A FEW DAYS WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NOT TOO MUCH WIND.

WEST COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL ZONES. ANOTHER 977 MB LOW WILL ENTER
THE SOUTHERN BERING SAT NIGHT/SUN AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
AGAIN BRING SNOW FOR ZONE 214 AND 215. THIS ONE IS QUIT MOVING AND
EXPECTED 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR ZONE 214 AND UP TO 4 INCHES FOR ZONE
212 AND 215 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

INTERIOR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR ZONE 221 AND 6 AM SAT MORNING FOR ZONE 219. THE SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ZONE 219 AS WELL. WE
HAVE ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ZONE 220 STEESE HIGHWAY SUMMITS
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WIND BURST AS THE COLD
AIR SLOSHES BACK EWD TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING FOR FAIRBANKS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF ZONE 222.

IN THE MID-RANGE...ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A
MAJOR NORTHERN BERING SEA STORM FOR TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. 00Z
FRI GEM AND ECMWF HAVE CENTRAL PRES AROUND 940MB AND GFS IS BELOW
950MB. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW CENTER NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WED...WHILE 00Z GEM IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK THIS STORM HAS COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. IN ANY CASE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WX IS
LIKELY OVR THE W CST AND WRN ARCTIC AT LEAST. MEANWHILE...CHILLY
AMS OVER THE INTER EARLY IN THE MID-RANGE WILL BE ROOTED OUT BY THE
BIG STORM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

JK NOV 11