Small Craft Advisory 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SNOWFALL IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AND/OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COASTAL ZONES WITH THE REMAINING COLDER
TOP CLOUDS.

A 978 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR THE NORTH POLE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 80N/160W BY SUN AFTERNOON...FILLING
ONLY A FEW MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST SUN MORNING. WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 KT OVER MARINE AREA
PKZ235 SUN...WITH COASTAL WINDS A BIT LESS. A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT OVER AREAS WEST OF BARROW WILL BRING SEAS
UP TO ABOUT 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE...BUT THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST DURING THE DAY
TUE. THE 00Z GFS RUN BRINGS A MODERATE SURFACE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC REACHING THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST TUE...WITH A
12-18 HR PERIOD OF NORTHWEST GALES ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
THIS IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM THE 18Z RUN...AND THIS
SOLUTION HAS NO SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO LEAN TO MORE MODERATE WINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SO AT THIS TIME WE ARE RATING THE COASTAL
HAZARD POTENTIAL AS LOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

RF OCT 11