Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

683 
FZAK52 PAFG 301002
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
202 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-310115-
202 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 987 MB LOW 275 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL PASS 75 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR SAND
POINT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-310115-
NORTON SOUND-
202 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ210-310115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
202 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ215-310115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
202 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ220-310115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
202 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT...HIGHEST WELL
OFFSHORE. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

RF/CB OCT 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SNOWFALL IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES AND/OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN INCH OR
TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COASTAL ZONES WITH THE REMAINING COLDER
TOP CLOUDS.

A 978 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR THE NORTH POLE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 80N/160W BY SUN AFTERNOON...FILLING
ONLY A FEW MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST SUN MORNING. WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 KT OVER MARINE AREA
PKZ235 SUN...WITH COASTAL WINDS A BIT LESS. A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT OVER AREAS WEST OF BARROW WILL BRING SEAS
UP TO ABOUT 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE...BUT THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST DURING THE DAY
TUE. THE 00Z GFS RUN BRINGS A MODERATE SURFACE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC REACHING THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST TUE...WITH A
12-18 HR PERIOD OF NORTHWEST GALES ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
THIS IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM THE 18Z RUN...AND THIS
SOLUTION HAS NO SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO LEAN TO MORE MODERATE WINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SO AT THIS TIME WE ARE RATING THE COASTAL
HAZARD POTENTIAL AS LOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

RF OCT 11