Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 PM AKDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ARE SIMILAR OUT THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE FROM WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ALASKA MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...THU THROUGH MON. CURRENT GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/EUROPEAN POINTING TO A LITTLE WARMING RETURNING NEXT TUE
AND WED.

978 MB LOW ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WILL FILL TO AROUND 988 MB OFF THE RUSSIAN BERING SEA COAST BY
THU AFTERNOON... GFS/EUROPEAN/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREE FAIRLY WELL.

AREAS OF FLURRIES AND FOG LIKELY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY FRI...WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING
TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE STRONG WINDS AND MINIMUM RH OF 30 PERCENT OR LESS IN ZONE 220
THIS EVENING ARE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...BUT COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT GUSTS MUCH OVER 20 MPH...THOUGH MINIMUM RH WILL BE UNDER 30
PERCENT AGAIN. OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN ALASKA SHOW EVEN LESS
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE
INTERIOR ZONES AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN AKZ224-EASTERN
AKZ220. THERMAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NENANA-50 MILES SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS-75 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE. FORECAST LIFTED INDEXES TODAY
ARE CLEARLY ON THE LOW END...ONLY A FEW STRIKES EXPECTED. THERMAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA RANGE THU
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY
SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY GAP WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH IN
AKZ225-AKZ226 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
ALASKA RANGE THU...SOUTHERLY GAP WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH DEVELOPING
SAT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S
OVER ZONE AKZ218-CENTRAL/NORTHERN PARTS OF AKZ219-AKZ220. RED FLAG
IS UP FOR AKZ220 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
AND LOW RH. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

RF JUN 11