Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO THE SE INTERIOR
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR TO RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THU. WED SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY
OF A PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR.
AT FAIRBANKS...DAILY HIGHS OF 76 OR HIGHER HAVE OCCURRED ON 7
CONSECUTIVE DAYS...AND WITH HIGHS TODAY AND WED LIKELY TO REACH
OR EXCEED 76...THE STRING WILL LIKELY REACH 9 DAYS...WHICH
WOULD BE THE SECOND LONGEST ON RECORD FOR SO EARLY IN THE
SEASON.

OCCLUDING LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL REACH MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 970 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD. LOW FILLING TO
NEAR 990 MB NEAR CAPE OLYUTORSKY BY 00Z FRI. AREAS OF RAIN
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADING NORTHWARD UP THE WEST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR
AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WED OR THU...ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INTERIOR WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK. BEYOND DAY 7...RMOPS SHOWING MEAN
RIDGE POSITION OVER THE MAINLAND WITH HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN MOST INLAND AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCAL SOUTHERLY GAP WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH IN AND NEAR ALASKA
RANGE PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AXIS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THU...REACHING
THE ALASKA RANGE THU. NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WITH NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
INTERIOR BY WED AFTERNOON...AND TO THE ALASKA RANGE BY THU
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BECOME
WEAK BY WED AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
LIKELY TO END LATER TONIGHT. AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE
MORE STABLE WED AND THU WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INTERIOR WED. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 4 PM WED FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER
NEAR COLVILLE VILLAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER NEAR COLVILLE VILLAGE.

&&

RF MAY 11