Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1239 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS AGREE WELL OUT THROUGH 00Z THU. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH 00Z WED... RIDGE NARROWS NARROW BY 00Z
THU WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND INTO CANADA. SHORT WAVE WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND DEEPEN THROUGH
12Z TUE. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AROUND 12Z TUE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY 12Z WED.

850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH WED...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER READINGS.

INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE
WEST COAST SOUTH OF NORTON SOUND TUESDAY...AND OVER MOST OF THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVE NORTHWARD.

MARINE WINDS...NE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KT OVER
PKZ200-PKZ210 TUE MORNING...NORTHEAST GALES DEVELOPING
SOUTHERN PARTS PKZ210 TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN OTHER
MARINE ZONES REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THUNDERSTORMS...
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WEAK THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
ARCTIC VILLAGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN AKZ217-AKZ219-WESTERN
AKZ220-EASTERN AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-NORTHWESTERN AKZ224.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN AKZ224-
AKZ225-AKZ226. TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERMAL TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND GALENA-FT YUKON-EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY...WEAK THERMAL LOW CENTER NEAR FT YUKON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN AKZ220-EASTERN
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ224.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
THU INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND
IS PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD...TO BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH ORIENTED
EAST-WEST ACROSS THE BERING AND INTERIOR OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. MIN RH
IN INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH DEVELOPING IN AND
NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES IN AKZ223-AKZ225- AKZ226 TUE COMBINED
WITH RH BELOW 30 PERCENT MAY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TUE
IN AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

AFTERNOON/EVENING GAP WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN WED BUT MAY BE
WEAKER...THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MIGRATING SOUTHWARD TO HUSLIA-
FAIRBANKS-CHICKEN BY WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY FOR
THE COLVILLE RIVER NEAR COLVILLE VILLAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER NEAR COLVILLE VILLAGE.

&&

RF MAY 11