Gale Warning 82, NWS Fairbanks, AK

648 
FZAK52 PAFG 110916
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
116 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-120030-
116 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 972 MB LOW NORTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEAKEN TO 986 MB ALONG THE NORTHEAST KAMCHATKA COAST BY
4 AM AKDT MONDAY. A FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-120030-
NORTON SOUND-
116 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-120030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
116 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT....EXCEPT 14 FT SOUTH OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND. RAIN. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT SOUTH OF
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES.
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT SOUTH OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT SUBSIDING TO
9 FT SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ215-120030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
116 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ220-120030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
116 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. FOG.
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

JK/CB SEP 11

305 
FZAK52 PAFG 112126
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-121300-
126 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 978 MB LOW NORTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEAKEN TO 989 MB ALONG THE NORTHEAST KAMCHATKA COAST
BY 4 PM AKDT MONDAY. A FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
MONDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-121300-
NORTON SOUND-
126 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-121300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
126 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. FOG. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-121300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
126 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-121300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
126 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

RL/DA SEP 11

449 
FZAK52 PAFG 121008
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130115-
208 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 987 MB LOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST KAMCHATKA COAST WILL MOVE TO 
200 NM NORTH OF ADAK BY 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
WEAKEN TODAY. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR COLD BAY TODAY AND
MOVE NORTHWEST TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-130115-
NORTON SOUND-
208 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
208 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...EXCEPT SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING
TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SOUTH AND WEST
OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND 4 FT ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-130115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
208 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ220-130115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
208 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

RL/CB SEP 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
359 AM AKDT SAT SEP 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...A FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AK
WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. A JET MAX FROM THE NORTHERN SEA OF JAPAN TO THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONG
UPPER LOW IN THE NW BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTH PAC LOW
NEAR 40N 160W WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP TO PUMP UP A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE MAINLAND SUN THAT
WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE MILD SLY
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND AK. EVENTUALLY THE BERING SEA LOW
MOVES EAST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE
FROM THE NORTHERN SEA OF OKHOTSK TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.
A 990 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
KAMCHATKA COAST. THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 970-975 MILLIBARS JUST WEST
OF THE GULF OF ANADYR TONIGHT. THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. A RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BUILD NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

INTERIOR...THIS WILL BE A WEEKEND WITH TWO DISTINCT REGIMES.
UNSETTLED TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT RAPIDLY SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MANY AREAS
LIKELY TO HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS UP
A REAL NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK MON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOW
ELEVATION SPOTS. POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP 70 DEGREES BY
TUESDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS MID-
LATE NEXT WEEK.

WEST COAST...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STORM SURGE GUIDANCE PEAKS
OUT TODAY AROUND 3 FT AT NOME BUT 4-5 FT IN THE EASTERN NORTON
SOUND.  ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST SURGES ARE GENERALLY 2
FT OR LESS.  WILL CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ZONES AROUND THE NORTON SOUND. THE TIDE GAGE AT NOME IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2.5 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS ABOUT 5.5 FT HIGHER THAN THE TIDES OBSERVED EARLY
THIS WEEK. THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT SOME
WATER COULD SPLASH OVER PARTS OF THE NOME-COUNCIL WATER. MINOR
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SLY GALES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST SUN AND THIS MAY PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND AT TELLER AND WALES. THE STORM SURGE MODEL
INDICATES A SURGE OF 3-3.5 FT AT WALES...BREVIG MISSION AND
TELLER. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF HIGH SURF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST BY TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN OUT ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NW BERING SEA LOW.

NORTH SLOPE...RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY IN THE FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT.  THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL THEN DRY OUT SUN AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. AREAS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST LIFTS NORTH
WITH SLY GALES POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST SUN WITH
THE DEEP LOW WEST OF ANADYR AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO ISSUES THIS WEEKEND.  WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME GAP FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE AK RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MOST RIVERS IN THE INTERIOR ARE EITHER STEADY OR FALLING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MAIN-STEM
RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

CB SEP 11