Gale Warning 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

645 
FZAK51 PAFG 150017
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-151530-
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1003 MB LOW 350 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO BANKS
ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1014 MB BY 3 AM AKST TUE. A 1022 MB HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TUE.

$$

PKZ225-151530-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...S WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 40 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-151530-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-151530-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-151530-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-151530-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
317 PM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1/2 NM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RL/DJH FEB 11

902 
FZAK51 PAFG 151123
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-160230-
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A 1020 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH WED. A
986 MB LOW ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND WEAKENS TO 996 MB TON. A WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST TON. 

$$

PKZ225-160230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW. 
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...SE WINDS 45 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-160230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-160230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE INCREASING TO 25 KT
AFTER NOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-160230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-160230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
223 AM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER NOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER NOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT.
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JK/CB FEB 11

437 
FZAK51 PAFG 152243
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-161345-
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THIS EVENING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 986 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AS A 996 MB
CENTER TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ225-161345-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY NOON.
BLOWING SNOW IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...SE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-161345-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-161345-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-161345-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-161345-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
143 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RL/CC/SAK FEB 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKST SUN FEB 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DROP
SOUTHEAST AND WILL END UP NEAR BANKS ISLAND AT 1012 MB BY LATE MON
NIGHT. THE WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WHILE A STRONG LOW MOVES OUT OF KAMCHATKA.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES EAST AND STRENGTHENS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS
WILL PUSH WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE INTERIOR BY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.

THE FIRST LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA WILL FUNCTION AS THE IMPETUS TO DRIVE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS LOW WILL LOSE MUCH OF ITS ENERGY AS IT
GETS STRUNG OUT ALONG THE RIDGE BUT CERTAINLY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THEN
THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE EASTWARD WHILE MOVING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD AS WELL. PROBABLY ONLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE LEFT AS THE FRONT PASSES RUBY OR BETTLES ON WED. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...THERE APPEARS TO BE
QUITE A POOL OF AIR TO OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS TO EXTRACT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM.

THE NEXT LOW WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER PUNCH AND WILL REMAIN MUCH
DEEPER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME AS IT STRIKES THE WEST COAST
SOMETIME WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST
OF ITS TRIP ACROSS THE STATE. THEN THE MODELS POINT IN SOME
RESPECT TO THE CONSISTENT ZONAL FLOW THROUGH 240 HOURS WHICH COULD
DRIVE MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

COLD AIR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT STILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI BUT LIKELY LONGER. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA SO THE REALLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GREATLY MODIFIED BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST WILL
LIKELY BE ENDING FOR THE MOST PART BY EARLY MON MORNING AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF FEB 11