Blizzard Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

373 
WWAK42 PAFG 142043
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1143 AM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

AKZ213-150100-
/X.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0003.110215T0300Z-110215T1500Z/
/X.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0020.110215T0300Z-110216T0300Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
1143 AM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MODERATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT COAST LATE TONIGHT.
A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
THE STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE FALLING SNOW TO REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AS THE WEATHER FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING. 

&&

$$

AKZ207-150100-
/X.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0020.110215T0900Z-110215T2100Z/
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
1143 AM AKST MON FEB 14 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON AKST TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON AKST TUESDAY. 

A MODERATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TO 25 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY. THE STRONG WIND WILL
COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER FRONT PUSHES
INLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
130 PM AKST SUN FEB 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DROP
SOUTHEAST AND WILL END UP NEAR BANKS ISLAND AT 1012 MB BY LATE MON
NIGHT. THE WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WHILE A STRONG LOW MOVES OUT OF KAMCHATKA.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE BERING
SEA MOVES EAST AND STRENGTHENS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS
WILL PUSH WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE INTERIOR BY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.

THE FIRST LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR
KAMCHATKA WILL FUNCTION AS THE IMPETUS TO DRIVE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS LOW WILL LOSE MUCH OF ITS ENERGY AS IT
GETS STRUNG OUT ALONG THE RIDGE BUT CERTAINLY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WEST COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THEN
THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE EASTWARD WHILE MOVING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD AS WELL. PROBABLY ONLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE LEFT AS THE FRONT PASSES RUBY OR BETTLES ON WED. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...THERE APPEARS TO BE
QUITE A POOL OF AIR TO OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS TO EXTRACT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM.

THE NEXT LOW WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER PUNCH AND WILL REMAIN MUCH
DEEPER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME AS IT STRIKES THE WEST COAST
SOMETIME WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST
OF ITS TRIP ACROSS THE STATE. THEN THE MODELS POINT IN SOME
RESPECT TO THE CONSISTENT ZONAL FLOW THROUGH 240 HOURS WHICH COULD
DRIVE MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

COLD AIR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT STILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI BUT LIKELY LONGER. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA SO THE REALLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GREATLY MODIFIED BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST WILL
LIKELY BE ENDING FOR THE MOST PART BY EARLY MON MORNING AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF FEB 11