Gale Warning 106, NWS Fairbanks, AK

146 
FZAK51 PAFG 311438 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED PKZ235 THROUGH PKZ245

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-010315-
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 985 MB LOW 600 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA MON. A
1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 995 MB LOW BY 4PM TUE.

$$

PKZ225-010315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.TUE...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-010315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-010315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED...NW WINDS 30 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-010315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT.  
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED...W WINDS 35 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-010315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
638 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT.  
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CB/JM OCT 11

438 
FZAK51 PAFG 312227
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-011315-
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 985 MB LOW 600 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
MON NIGHT AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 990 MB LOW
BY 4AM TUE AND TO 150 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 999 MB
LOW BY 4PM TUE...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST.

$$

PKZ225-011315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT.
BLOWING SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. BLOWING
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-011315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TUE...NW WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-011315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TUE...W WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-011315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-011315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
227 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

OCT 11

414 
FZAK51 PAFG 010900
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-020000-
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 986 MB LOW 600 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED.
A 995 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO
100 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 990 MB LOW BY 4AM TUE AND TO
150 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 999 MB LOW BY 4PM
TUE...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST.

$$

PKZ225-020000-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-020000-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 50 KT DECREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-020000-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...W WINDS 45 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-020000-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...W WINDS 50 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 35 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-020000-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
100 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER NOON. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...W WINDS 50 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RL/JK NOV 11

123 
FZAK51 PAFG 012150
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-021230-
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE 300 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT AS A 995 MB LOW BY 4AM WED AND THEN
CONTINUE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST FROM THIS LOW
WILL MOVE TO DEMARCATION POINT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM WED AND THEN
STRETCH EASTWARD.


$$

PKZ225-021230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT FALLING
TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-021230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT FALLING TO 8 FT.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. BLOWING SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-021230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED...W WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-021230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
SHOWERS. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-021230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
150 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
SHOWERS. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. VSBY LESS THAN 1NM.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

NOV 11

144 
FZAK51 PAFG 020951
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-030030-
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE 300 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT AS A 995 MB LOW BY 4AM WED AND THEN
CONTINUE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST FROM THIS LOW
WILL MOVE TO DEMARCATION POINT TO POINT LAY BY 4AM WED AND THEN
STRETCH EASTWARD.

$$

PKZ225-030030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-030030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-030030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-030030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-030030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
151 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JK NOV 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA MON AND TUE BEFORE MOVING INTO NW CANADA WED.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

A VERY DEEP LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC IS PRODUCING A STRONG WESTERLY
ARCTIC JET ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH TUE. THIS
WILL BRING STRONG DYNAMICS WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION TO THE ARCTIC COAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
ADVECTION OF 850 MB AIR COLDER THAN -20C ALONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
LESS THAN 5000M AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PARALLEL TO THE ICE EDGE
IS SETTING UP FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT POLAR LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
ARCTIC COAST IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING EARLY TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BETTLES TO DENALI WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
ALCAN BORDER BY MON AM. SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL
DIMINISH TO FLURRIES WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME CLEARING WEST OF
THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...
A 980 MB LOW 600 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEAKEN SLOWLY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
MON. THIS IS NOW CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS AND SW WINDS 25 KT ALONG THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINDS AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EAST OF BARROW. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. DID NOT ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH WATCH
FOR TUE.

A STRONG 995 MB POLAR LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
MON NIGHT AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 990 MB LOW
BY 4PM TUE. THIS COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TUE-WED ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST WITH 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW AND WEST WINDS GUSTING 40-50
MPH. SINCE MODELS DUE VERY POORLY WITH POLAR LOWS THIS COULD
EASILY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS FORECAST. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
STRONGEST STORM SO FAR THIS SEASON ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH FETCH LENGTH COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG
WINDS AND VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO RAISE SEA LEVELS 1-2 FT
AND CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND RAFT ICE ONSHORE FROM BARROW
WEST TUE- WED. MORE SHORE FAST ICE EAST OF BARROW MAY PREVENT ANY
FLOODING FROM OCCURRING THERE.

THIS STORM COULD PUSH HIGHER WATER INTO KOTZEBUE SOUND LATE TUE-WED
BUT AT THIS POINT SURGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT RISE. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL.

A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT. THIS IS CAUSING NE WINDS 15-25 KT ALONG
THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTH THAT WILL DECREASE
LATE MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS 4PM MON. AFTER
THAT NAM IS FASTER WITH MOVEMENT OF GULF OF ALASKA LOW. PREFER
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA CAUSING THE LOW TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY ANCHORED
THERE. EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE SE INTERIOR TUE FROM
THAT FEATURE.

THE GFS IS ALSO DEEPER WITH THE POTENTIAL POLAR LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND IS PREFERRED ON THAT
FEATURE AS WELL. EXPECT THAT FEATURE TO BE STRONGER THAN ANY
MODELS AND HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP 3-5 KT FROM ANY MODELS NEAR THIS POLAR
LOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB OCT 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
912 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

AKZ201>204-311400-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...
ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
912 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

...STORMY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE ARCTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST WINDS TO 30 MPH AND BLOWING SNOW WERE
OBSERVED FROM WAINWRIGHT TO BARROW. THE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
HAVE NOW DIMINISHED.

A SECOND AND CONSIDERABLY STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL APPROACH THE ALASKAN
ARCTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG AS 45 MPH
WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THE CHUKCHI SEA WEST OF BARROW IS STILL ALMOST
COMPLETELY ICE FREE. THIS...AND GALE FORCE WEST WINDS STARTING ON
MONDAY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING COASTAL FLOODING FROM
CAPE LISBURNE UP TO POINT BARROW FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS INBOUND STORM COULD TURN OUT TO BE ONE OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT OF THE WINTER. THIS IS BECAUSE OF THE LARGE EXPANSE OF
ICE FREE WATERS WEST OF BARROW AND THE HEAVY SEAS EXPECTED IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE WINTER PACK ICE WILL BE RAPIDLY
FORMING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA NORTH OF POINT LAY. THIS WILL
GREATLY LESSEN THE CHANCES FOR COASTAL FLOODING NORTH OF POINT
HOPE. EAST OF BARROW...THE SEA ICE COVER IS NEARLY COMPLETE.