Brisk Wind Advisory 165, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR WARMUP FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MODERATE TO
STRONG CHINOOK IN THE AK RANGE ARE ON TRACK. CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE 700 MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 70-80 KT OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN AK RANGE. CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TUE NIGHT...REACHING FULL STRENGTH
WED. WIND ADVISORIES OR HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR AKZ225-AKZ226 AND
POSSIBLY AKZ223 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 45 ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE WED. IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE HILLS WILL
APPROACH FREEZING WED. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR IN THE VALLEY AREAS.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...AN AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE MOST HIGHLY
PREDICTABLE FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG EAST PAC RIDGE THAT
REMAINS CENTERED ALONG OR ABOUT 40N 130W FOR THE DURATION OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE THU MORNING A
STRONG CHINOOK SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRONG WIND IN/NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. A SECOND AND POSSIBLY STRONGER CHINOOK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...BOTH QUITE
STRONG WITH THE 2ND CHINOOK AND HAVE 700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80
KT BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY MON...CURRENT RUNS ENDING THE CHINOOK
AND REPLACING IT WITH LIGHTER W TO SW WIND FLOW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.  UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE NCEP RMOPS HAVE VERY LOW
MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STRONG EAST PAC RIDGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RF/CB NOV 11