Brisk Wind Advisory 150, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
154 PM AKST MON NOV 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK
OF BERING SEA SUPERSTORM WHICH WILL CAUSE SEVERE BEACH
EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE
WEST COAST. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST WEST COAST
AREAS WILL BE GALE TO STORM FORCE...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
IN AKZ207-AKZ213. OVER WATER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED PKZ210-PKZ220. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE
BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED IN AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST WED...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 30-40 MPH IN AKZ201
AND 40-50 MPH IN AKZ201. BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WED IN AKZ201.

973 MB STORM ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT
MID AFTERNOON DEEPENING RAPIDLY TO AROUND 945-950 MB
MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY 00Z WED...MOVING
TO NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY 00Z THU WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB. LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE
WILL BE NEAR 940 MB.

LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TUE.

APPROXIMATE SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...
AKZ207...5-9 INCHES
AKZ208...6-8 INCHES
AKZ209...5-8 INCHES
AKZ210...9-14 INCHES...SMALLER AMOUNTS NORTH PARTS
AKZ212...5-10 INCHES
AKZ214...4-8 INCHES

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...

MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT ROMANOF.
2. EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORELINE OF NORTON SOUND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF BERING STRAIT COAST...
   ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...LITTLE DIOMEDE.
4. CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.
5. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH WATER LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL
   CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
   THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND.

TIDAL LEVELS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 8-9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
IN NORTON SOUND...ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST...AND
ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF. TIDES MAY AS HIGH AS 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG
PARTS OF THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN
NORTHWEST TO POINT HOPE. STRONG WINDS AND WAVES WILL
PUSH ICE IN NORTON BAY ONSHORE.

IN THE NOME AREA...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF AROUND 8 FEET IS
EXPECTED EARLY WED EVENING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WARNING AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201.

HIGH WIND WARNING AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING PKZ220-PKZ225.

STORM WARNING PKZ210.
&&

RF NOV 11