Brisk Wind Advisory 131, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 PM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE BERING ARE
SOMEWHAT OFFSET EVEN AT INITIALIZATION BUT MODELS MAINTAIN THE
MOVEMENT IN SYNCH WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

NEW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE ITS ENERGY SUCKED IN BY THE
EXISTING BERING LOW AND THEN THE REMNANTS OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THERMAL TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTH TO CENTER ITSELF FROM ABOUT CHICKEN
TO BETTLES TO NOATAK. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WEAKEN OVER THE
ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH THU.

OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY MORNING BUT THE
FRONT IS QUICKLY FIZZLING OUT.

THE ARCTIC COAST IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH IN THE ARCTIC AND THE THERMAL LOW IN THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. THIS HAS CREATED ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN MANY AREAS
ON THE ARCTIC COAST FOR THE MARINE AREAS. PERIODS OF SNOW AND FOG
WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
A BIT WITH THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH ON WED.

MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE GFS BUILDS
BACK THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS IN A
LOW FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA VIA NORTHEAST
ALASKA. THEN AT ABOUT 180 HOURS THE MODELS COME BACK MORE IN LINE
WITH EACH OTHER WITH BUILDING IN A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEAK CHINOOK OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
IS CREATING VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF/DA JUN 11