Small Craft Advisory 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

209 
FZAK51 PAFC 041217
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE 120 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF YAKUTAT AT 1023 MB FRI EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. 
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
215 PM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA SINCE MONDAY IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KAMISHAK BAY AND
WILL DRIFT EAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TRANSIENT RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL REFLECT
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST...MAINLY MEDIUM RANGE
DETAILS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. REGARDING THAT
SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WE PREFER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
IS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TAKING A MORE NORTH AND
EASTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR KAMISHAK BAY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FALLING IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES A
DROPPING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WHILE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SO LAPSE RATES ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS LEADING TO INTENSE SHOWERS REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND LOWERING CEILINGS WHILE PRODUCING BRIEF HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATION IS
LIMITED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AROUND KACHEMAK BAY WHERE A STEADY BAND
OF MOISTURE SET UP THIS MORNING AND DROPPED 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW
AROUND THE AREA.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY
TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WITH THE AXIS MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING. FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE NEXT WAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...LIKEWISE THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS STILL EFFECTING SOME AREAS. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WITH
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP AND LIKELY BECOME
WIDESPREAD WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
FOR PLACES ALONG THE COAST.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PARENT LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 155 170 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB FEB 11