Brisk Wind Advisory 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

360 
FZAK52 PAFC 041213
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTH OF ATKA MOVES TO 360 NM SOUTH OF ATKA AT
984 MB FRI NIGHT AND THEN TO 90 NM NORTHEAST OF ATKA AT 995 MB SAT
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.  SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT N 25 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
215 PM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA SINCE MONDAY IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KAMISHAK BAY AND
WILL DRIFT EAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TRANSIENT RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL REFLECT
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST...MAINLY MEDIUM RANGE
DETAILS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. REGARDING THAT
SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WE PREFER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
IS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TAKING A MORE NORTH AND
EASTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR KAMISHAK BAY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FALLING IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES A
DROPPING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WHILE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SO LAPSE RATES ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS LEADING TO INTENSE SHOWERS REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND LOWERING CEILINGS WHILE PRODUCING BRIEF HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATION IS
LIMITED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AROUND KACHEMAK BAY WHERE A STEADY BAND
OF MOISTURE SET UP THIS MORNING AND DROPPED 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW
AROUND THE AREA.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY
TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WITH THE AXIS MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING. FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE NEXT WAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...LIKEWISE THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS STILL EFFECTING SOME AREAS. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WITH
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP AND LIKELY BECOME
WIDESPREAD WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
FOR PLACES ALONG THE COAST.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PARENT LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 155 170 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB FEB 11