Small Craft Advisory 944, NWS Anchorage, AK

362 
FZAK51 PAFC 280020
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WED AFTERNOON 
AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND WED EVENING. A 985 MB LOW 
WILL FORM 40 NM WEST OF CORDOVA WED EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ120-281500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ121-281500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-281500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
25 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-281500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-281500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-281500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ138-281500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-281500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-281500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING AROUND
THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER KAMCHATKA AND WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE BERING. A
WEAKENING LOW IS OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ANOTHER IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...HEADED TOWARD THE GULF. THE SECOND LOW WILL
BE THE NEXT MAJOR FEATURE AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK
RANGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING NORTHLY FLOW ACROSS THE
BERING THROUGH THU. A WEAK LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON
FRI. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST... THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
DRIFTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN DISSIPATES TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW
MOVES TO THE SE AK COAST WED MORNING AND THEN BY WED EVENING
TRANSLATES ALONG THE COAST TO THE VICINITY OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE LOW THEN TAKES UP RESIDENCE AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS IN THE WEST...AND THE GFS AND
EC IN THE EAST FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST USES
HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU. THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING ON FRI WILL BRING SNOW
AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY THE
WEEKEND.

FOR SW AK... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAUSED BY WAVES RIPPLING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FIRST LOW DECAYS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATER ON WED AS THE LOW MAKES
ITS WAY FROM SE AK ALONG THE COAST TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE WED
INTO THU. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BENEATH THE
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO SW AK ON SAT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ON SUN. SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 132 138 140 141 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 11