Small Craft Advisory 920, NWS Anchorage, AK

676 
FZAK52 PAFC 190309 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 40 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A 966 MB LOW 130 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL WILL WEAKEN TO 988 MB AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 980 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN STRENGTHENS TO 973 MB AS IT MOVES TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DILLINGHAM TUESDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO S 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT WINDS DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM PORT MOLLER EAST. SEAS 15 FT IN THE EVENING SUBSIDING
TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.  
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING FROM PORT
MOLLER EAST. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING NORTH
OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BERING SIDE...SW WIND 40 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT PACIFIC SIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT SEAS 18 FT PACIFIC SIDE IN
THE MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

197 
FZAK52 PAFC 191224
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 MB LOW 170 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
IN PLACE TO 990 MB LATE TUE NIGHT. A 988 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO COOK INLET AT 995 MB MON EVENING
AND DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB 110 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY TUE MORNING AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND
30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-200300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-200300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SW WIND 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-200300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING SE 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW WIND 40 KT TOWARDS
MORNING. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-200300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. WINDS BECOMING NE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT N 45 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-200300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 35 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH AND WEST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-200300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A POWERFUL STORM HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS NOW WEAKENING. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAIN STRETCHED OUT EAST ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST...BUT THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENING AS WELL. THE LOW TRACKED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
ANTICIPATED SO AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW IS BRINGING THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND
SNOW. WINDS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
FORECASTED BECAUSE OF THAT WESTERN JOG THE LOW TOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL QUITE A STORM WITH WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND
THE GULF...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE ANCHOR LOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN BERING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LONG WAVE TROF MAINTAINING OUR
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THE FIRST 48 HOURS
AND THEN DIVERGE GREATLY ON A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER...SO THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY BASED OFF OF THOSE TWO MODELS IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE MAJOR LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN...THE CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING NORTH AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. 925 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 1 DEG CELCIUS AT 0Z TO
-5 DEG BY MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR COUPLED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
THE CHUGACH RANGE AND TALKEETNAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SNOW
THANKS TO THE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

A SHORT WAVE TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG BEFORE THE NEXT
WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW THAT DEVELOPS
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE.
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS UNDERWHELMING...BUT
ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION THAT
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING. CURRENTLY THINKING
A MID 970S LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR DILLINGHAM TUESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO TURNAGAIN
ARM AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY. MAY WAIT ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO BEFORE ISSUING ANY WATCHES FOR THESE ZONES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LIKE
SOUTHCENTRAL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TOO AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. THE SECOND WAVE WILL
BRING THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW ON TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OR EVEN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AGAIN...TOO FAR OUT SO WE WILL JUST BEGIN TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL
IN THE PUBLIC ZONES FOR NOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ALL THE ACTION CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND.
SHOWERS AND MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE DEVELOPING WAVES ARE
THE MAIN THREAT OUT WEST. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
COLD AIR FINALLY SPILLING DOWN OUT OF FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND A DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 150 160 180 170 179 185
                       412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 11