Small Craft Advisory 919, NWS Anchorage, AK

342 
FZAK51 PAFC 191248
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO COOK
INLET AT 995 MB MON EVENING AND DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TUE MORNING WILL REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY TUE
EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF KALGIN
ISLAND...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A POWERFUL STORM HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS NOW WEAKENING. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAIN STRETCHED OUT EAST ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST...BUT THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING AND
WEAKENING AS WELL. THE LOW TRACKED A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
ANTICIPATED SO AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW IS BRINGING THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND
SNOW. WINDS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
FORECASTED BECAUSE OF THAT WESTERN JOG THE LOW TOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL QUITE A STORM WITH WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND
THE GULF...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE ANCHOR LOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN BERING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LONG WAVE TROF MAINTAINING OUR
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THE FIRST 48 HOURS
AND THEN DIVERGE GREATLY ON A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER...SO THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY BASED OFF OF THOSE TWO MODELS IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE MAJOR LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN...THE CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING NORTH AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. 925 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 1 DEG CELCIUS AT 0Z TO
-5 DEG BY MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR COUPLED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
THE CHUGACH RANGE AND TALKEETNAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SNOW
THANKS TO THE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

A SHORT WAVE TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG BEFORE THE NEXT
WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW THAT DEVELOPS
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE.
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS UNDERWHELMING...BUT
ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION THAT
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING. CURRENTLY THINKING
A MID 970S LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR DILLINGHAM TUESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO TURNAGAIN
ARM AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY. MAY WAIT ANOTHER
RUN OR TWO BEFORE ISSUING ANY WATCHES FOR THESE ZONES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LIKE
SOUTHCENTRAL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TOO AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. THE SECOND WAVE WILL
BRING THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW ON TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OR EVEN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AGAIN...TOO FAR OUT SO WE WILL JUST BEGIN TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL
IN THE PUBLIC ZONES FOR NOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ALL THE ACTION CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND.
SHOWERS AND MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE DEVELOPING WAVES ARE
THE MAIN THREAT OUT WEST. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
COLD AIR FINALLY SPILLING DOWN OUT OF FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND A DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 150 160 180 170 179 185
                       412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 11