Small Craft Advisory 914, NWS Anchorage, AK

880 
FZAK51 PAFC 170027
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF SAT MORNING AND TRACK TO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SAT EVENING. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 965 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE
SAT NIGHT AND APPROACH THE GULF COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE 965 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUN
MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.

.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.

.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1110 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...VERY STRONG PACIFIC STORM HAS DRIFTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA THIS MORNING...JUST NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LOW IS VERY SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER AFFECTING MARINE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 30 TO 45 FT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD
BACK ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WHICH IS HAS STRETCHED OUT EAST TO WEST FROM
THE EASTERN BERING TO THE EASTERN GULF HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP IS FOCUSED OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WITH VERY LITTLE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

LOOKING DOWN ALONG THE JET THERE ARE A COUPLE FEATURES EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ALASKA. THE FIRST IS A WEAK LOW NEAR 48N 153W WHICH WILL
TRACK UP THE POLE SIDE OF THE JET INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. IT IS
NOT IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DEVELOPMENT SO EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
A WEAK SYSTEM. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS LOW IS DEEPENING AND RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OUT AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF IS VERIFYING BEST WITH EXISTING
FEATURES AND CONTINUES TO DISPLAY VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THEREFORE...WILL BLEND HEAVILY TOWARD THE 12 ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHOICE OF MODELS DOES MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM MOVES TOWARD MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE GFS TRACKS THIS STORM INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE ECMWF
TRACKS IT INTO THE WESTERN GULF. WITH SUCH A DISPARITY FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT PARTICULAR STORM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND. FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST  BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS BENEFICIAL
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WHILE THE
CORDOVA AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN VALDEZ WILL STAY ALL SNOW AND IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOMEWHERE AROUND ONE FOOT OF SNOW OUT OF THIS.
THE AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT SO SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND BRIEF. THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
PARTLY DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT AND PARTLY DUE TO THE FACT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ONLY BRIEFLY GO SOUTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THESES AREAS
PRODUCING THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING AFFECT.

THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL TRACK TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY MID-DAY FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED IN SHORT SUCCESSION OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES AS WE HEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING. THIS WILL KEEP
AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS DRY WHILE UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST
NOTABLY NORTH AND WEST OF DILLINGHAM WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND
SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SATURDAY AND BRING SIMILAR IMPACTS AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE
STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BOTTOM OUT ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
TO THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY. SINCE PRESSURE IS ALREADY VERY LOW
WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT LOW
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT LEAD ONE TO
THINK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH TIGHTER ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WHERE A SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER POWERFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND CURVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA SUNDAY. THERE IS QUIET A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD. THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OF TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING AND NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN THIS VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...150 155.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 160 165 170 172 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11