Small Craft Advisory 890, NWS Anchorage, AK

566 
FZAK51 PAFC 071224
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 90 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY
THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO NEAR SEWARD LATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS 
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE INTERIOR IS
AMPLIFYING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE 250 MB JET STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURES REFLECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE OFF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND A LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE IS A BIT OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND THAT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FORECAST THOUGH THE
OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT.
IN THE SHORT TERM THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS BETWEEN MODELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE A BIT
OF AN IMPACT ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND GULF COAST FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER A BLIZZARD
WARNING TODAY. THE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY SO IT MAY END
UP BEING CANCELED EARLY AND NOT RUNNING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING IN THAT AREA THEY SHOULD REMAIN
THERE AS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE
ENTIRE EASTERN BERING SEA REGION INCLUDING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL SEE MILD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN THIS WARM ADVECTION AND WIND. THE WIND WILL KEEP THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED AND PREVENT STEEP INVERSIONS FROM SETTING
UP OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER.
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO MOST GULF COASTAL REGIONS AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE BY MORNING. WINDS WIND INCREASE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
DOWN COOK INLET TOMORROW AND EASE UP SOME TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW TO THE COOK INLET REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE WINDS KICK IN AND DOWNSLOPE TAKES OVER. AS WINDS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATSU
AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IN THE
BERING WITH RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
STORM TRACKS FAVORED IN THIS REGIME ARE ONES THAT DEVELOP NORTHERN
PACIFIC LOWS THAT MIGRATE INTO THE BERING SEA WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS
AND TRIPLE POINT LOWS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180
185. STORM 120. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 11