Gale Warning 917, NWS Anchorage, AK

715 
FZAK61 PAFC 071221
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N 150W THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TO 60N 149W LATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

666 
FZAK61 PAFC 080044
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THU. A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 59N 150W THIS EVENING AND DRIFT
TO 60N 146W AT 1010 MB FRI. 
$$

PKZ351-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-081500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 7 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 6 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE INTERIOR IS
AMPLIFYING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE 250 MB JET STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURES REFLECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE OFF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND A LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE IS A BIT OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND THAT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FORECAST THOUGH THE
OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT.
IN THE SHORT TERM THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS BETWEEN MODELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE A BIT
OF AN IMPACT ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND GULF COAST FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHICH HAS BEEN UNDER A BLIZZARD
WARNING TODAY. THE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY SO IT MAY END
UP BEING CANCELED EARLY AND NOT RUNNING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING IN THAT AREA THEY SHOULD REMAIN
THERE AS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE
ENTIRE EASTERN BERING SEA REGION INCLUDING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL SEE MILD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN THIS WARM ADVECTION AND WIND. THE WIND WILL KEEP THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED AND PREVENT STEEP INVERSIONS FROM SETTING
UP OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER.
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO MOST GULF COASTAL REGIONS AND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE BY MORNING. WINDS WIND INCREASE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
DOWN COOK INLET TOMORROW AND EASE UP SOME TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW TO THE COOK INLET REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE WINDS KICK IN AND DOWNSLOPE TAKES OVER. AS WINDS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATSU
AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IN THE
BERING WITH RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
STORM TRACKS FAVORED IN THIS REGIME ARE ONES THAT DEVELOP NORTHERN
PACIFIC LOWS THAT MIGRATE INTO THE BERING SEA WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS
AND TRIPLE POINT LOWS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180
185. STORM 120. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 11