Small Craft Advisory 871, NWS Anchorage, AK

972 
FZAK51 PAFC 281837 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
940 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 994 MB 
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING LATE MON AFTERNOON. THE 
FIRST IN A SERIES OF STRONG FRONTS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF 
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
630 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
940 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
630 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
630 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

291 
FZAK51 PAFC 290017
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW WILL PERSIST IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 8 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES A PRETTY HIGH ZONAL
INDEX CONSISTING OF PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WITH A NUMBER OF FAST
MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MADE UP OF TWO CLOSED LOW CENTERS SITS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
THE BERING SEA. WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES LIES A VERY
ACTIVE WESTERLY JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER
IN THE COMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MOST OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
LIES UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR THE UNSEASONABLE COLD TO CONTINUE FOR THE TIME
BEING...HOWEVER A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IN THE GULF IS SPREADING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALLOWING FOR MODERATED
TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF IS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD
KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO COASTAL REGIONS IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. FURTHER OUT WEST...A DECAYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ELONGATES IN THE BERING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC UNDER JET INFLUENCE ARE A SURFACE WAVE AROUND 160W
AND A DEVELOPING VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW NEARING THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE. A JET STREAK OF 185 KNOTS LEAVING EAST ASIA WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THAT SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES ARE GENERALLY AGREED UPON IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
JET STREAM POSITION AND AMPLIFICATION ARE WELL REPRESENTED. GIVEN THE
CHANGING PREVAILING PATTERN AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC LOW SMALL SCALE FEATURES DIVERGE FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
GFS/ECMWF HANDLED THE CURRENT SURFACE LOW VERY WELL WHILE THE NAM/GEM
WERE THE OUTLIERS FOR THE SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM AND ARE VERY CLOSE TO ONE
ANOTHER. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
TRACKS NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE
DISCREPANCIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON FROM MODEL TO MODEL ARE...EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...MAGNITUDE OF WARM AIR
SURGE INTO COOK INLET/ANCHORAGE BOWL AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. GFS IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND AND KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. ACCUMULATION...IF
ANY...WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE THE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE DEEP LOW WILL BRING A FRONT AND SURGE OF WARM AIR
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. PRECIPITATION IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE OVERRUNNING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
DOWNSLOPING AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COMPOUNDING THE SITUATION IS THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR BROUGHT NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOW LEVELS MAKING PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST A
TOUGH ONE AT THIS POINT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AREA AS WELL AS EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. THE YUKON DELTA REGION SHOULD
STAY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR COASTAL REGIONS THAT WILL BE IN LOW STRATUS
MOVING IN FROM OFFSHORE. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SNOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PUSHES NORTH
INTO BRISTOL BAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DEEPENING LOW
BRINGS MOISTURE...WARM AIR...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKAN PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SHOULD STAY IN THE COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL
GET GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY BY LATE WEEK LEAVING A TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND A RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE
CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC UP THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE BITTER COLD OF
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS IN SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL BE REPLACED BY A
MODERATED MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE BERING WILL SEE AN
INFUSION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 351
352 411 412 413 414 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 11