Small Craft Advisory 866, NWS Anchorage, AK

654 
FZAK52 PAFC 281152
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK MOVES TO 65 NM NORTH OF ADAK MON
EVENING AT 987 MB AND THEN IS ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW
MON NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA DEEPENS TO 973 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 265 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR LATE MON NIGHT...THEN
WEAKENS TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES 90 NM SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM LATE TUE
NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW FORMS 140 NM WEST OF ATTU ISLAND LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1120 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS MORNING WITH A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JET. A LOW IS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE SOUTH TIP OF KODIAK
ISLAND AROUND 979 MB AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE GULF WHILE THE JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FAST
UPPER FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL BE QUICK TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
AND THE BULK OF WINDS AND PRECIP WITH THE LOW WILL BE FELT ALONG
THE COASTAL REGION. THE BULK OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HEAD EAST ACROSS THE GULF MEANING PRECIP-TYPE WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST.

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA...IN THE ARCTIC AIR NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A
WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE
JET TONIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVELS AND FORCE THE
BERING LOW SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM IS BOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE 18Z POSITION OF THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
IT CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER FOR THE ENTIRE MODEL RUN. THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SEEM TO BE VERIFYING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYSTEM AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR LOW MOVING TO BRISTOL
BAY LATE TUESDAY. THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SECOND LOW
IS ALSO GOOD SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GULF LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW PASSES BY WHICH MEAN SNOW
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TOWARD
CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. IT WILL BE WEAK AND QUICK TO MOVE
THROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY
MINOR (LESS THAN 1 INCH). A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MID WEEK
AS A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN.
THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
ALASKA SETTING UP A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH MEANS
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR FROM THE TROPICS. THIS SET-UP
IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL
AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS THROUGH
WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE. ALTHOUGH
WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM IT APPEARS THE WARMEST AIR
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT. THE INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO TEND TO FAVOR MAINTAINING SNOW. WITH THIS IN
MIND MAY ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FOR PORTAGE
VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW AND WINDS
FIRST ARRIVE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE WATCHES BUT WILL RE-ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
GULF LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. A STRONG LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BASED ON THE CURRENT
EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES AND A POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. MUCH
WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...SO ANY SMALL CHANGE IN TRACK
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF WEATHER IS OBSERVED. WILL CONTINUE
TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER AND
FURTHER WESTWARD WITH DEVELOPING PACIFIC SYSTEM. WITH ALL SOLUTIONS
HEADED THIS WAY WILL UPDATE WIND FORECAST TO REFLECT A TRACK CLOSER
TO DUTCH HARBOR ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALEUTIANS. THE JET WILL QUICKLY PASS BY THIS
SECOND SYSTEM SO DON'T EXPECT IT TO BE AS POWERFUL AS THE FIRST
STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT NEW PATTERN TO BECOME EVEN MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W LONGITUDE AND A TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA/NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE STORM TRACK WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO WESTERN ALASKA. THIS MEANS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE ARCTIC AIR WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. IN
BETWEEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A CLASH BETWEEN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT AIR MASSES...AND THESE WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
BACK AND FORTH AS SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 155 170 171 172 175
                        176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...140 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-280600-

...MAJOR STORM LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ON
MONDAY AND TRACK TO WESTERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP
A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WHICH WILL CREATE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION INCLUDE THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION AS WELL AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS THE
PRECIPITATION FIRST ARRIVES SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR AREAS AT OR NEAR SEA LEVEL
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE THE SNOW OVER
TO RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS VALDEZ
(WHERE THE COLD AIR IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT) WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL
SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A VERY STRONG FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL AS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF STRONG WINDS WERE TO COINCIDE WITH SNOWFALL.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS PORTAGE VALLEY AND
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHICH AREAS OBSERVE THE MOST SEVERE
WEATHER. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS IMPENDING STORM.

SEB NOV 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-171-282000-

...MAJOR STORM LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ON
MONDAY AND TRACK TO WESTERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP
A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WHICH WILL CREATE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION INCLUDE THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION AS WELL AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS THE
PRECIPITATION FIRST ARRIVES SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR AREAS AT OR NEAR SEA LEVEL
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE THE SNOW OVER
TO RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS VALDEZ
(WHERE THE COLD AIR IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT) WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL
SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A VERY STRONG FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL AS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF STRONG WINDS WERE TO COINCIDE WITH SNOWFALL.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS PORTAGE VALLEY AND
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHICH AREAS OBSERVE THE MOST SEVERE
WEATHER. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS IMPENDING STORM.

SEB NOV 11