Small Craft Advisory 852, NWS Anchorage, AK

141 
FZAK51 PAFC 250029
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE NORTH AND AND WEAKEN
INLAND THIS EVENING. A 982 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
WILL MOVE TO 30 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FOOT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND WELL INTO THE BERING SEA. THE 250 MB
JET STREAM IS RUNNING WEST TO EAST BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WITH OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF HAS
FILLED WITH COLD AIR WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED LOWS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE BIGGEST THING THAT JUMPS OUT IN LOOKING AT
THE MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUNS IS HOW THE GFS HAS OVER SMOOTHED THE
FEATURES OF THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF. THAT CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE GULF LOW. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE MORE DISTINCT
FEATURES IN THIS LOW COMPLEX AND THE NAM WAS USED IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE BERING SEA REGION THE GFS DID NOT HAVE
THE SAME ISSUES AND FORECAST WAS NUDGED A LITTLE THAT WAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A FEW SNEAKING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO
BRING IN COLD AND DRY AIR.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS IN THE SAME SITUATION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREA OF FLURRIES AS THE AIR
IS COLD ENOUGH THAT VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE TO
PRECIPITATE OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOME WEAK
LOWS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MOSTLY BE SNOW
SHOWERS, HOWEVER THE WILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD FOR MOST OF THE STATE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING AROUND SUNDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 175 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 138 140 150 160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11