Small Craft Advisory 849, NWS Anchorage, AK

050 
FZAK51 PAFC 240344 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 129 130 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE EAST AND 
DISSIPATE THU. A 984 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 75 NM NORTHWEST OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE WED NIGHT AND DRIFT TO 75 NM SOUTH OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS 
40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST
OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
640 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
640 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
THIS EVENING. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
640 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
640 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 241236
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD AND WEAK COMPLEX LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING. A 987 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK
WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND MOVE TO 190 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
THU EVENING AND BE ABSORBED BY THE COMPLEX LOW THU NIGHT.  
$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI THROUGH SAT..NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER
THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND WELL INTO THE BERING SEA. THE 250 MB
JET STREAM IS RUNNING WEST TO EAST BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WITH OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF HAS
FILLED WITH COLD AIR WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED LOWS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE BIGGEST THING THAT JUMPS OUT IN LOOKING AT
THE MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUNS IS HOW THE GFS HAS OVER SMOOTHED THE
FEATURES OF THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF. THAT CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE GULF LOW. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE MORE DISTINCT
FEATURES IN THIS LOW COMPLEX AND THE NAM WAS USED IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE BERING SEA REGION THE GFS DID NOT HAVE
THE SAME ISSUES AND FORECAST WAS NUDGED A LITTLE THAT WAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A FEW SNEAKING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO
BRING IN COLD AND DRY AIR.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS IN THE SAME SITUATION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREA OF FLURRIES AS THE AIR
IS COLD ENOUGH THAT VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE TO
PRECIPITATE OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOME WEAK
LOWS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MOSTLY BE SNOW
SHOWERS, HOWEVER THE WILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD FOR MOST OF THE STATE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING AROUND SUNDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 175 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 138 140 150 160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11