Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

196 
FZAK52 PAFC 310106 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
406 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 994 MB LOW 240 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA
MON NIGHT. A 996 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO
90 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 991 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-311500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-311500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-311500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-311500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT S AND W OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 7
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT S AND W OF PORT MOLLER.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-311500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT N
AND E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-311500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-311500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-311500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 20 KT W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-311500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-311500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 35 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-311500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.MON...W WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 35 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-311500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

022 
FZAK52 PAFC 311253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE MAINLAND TUE NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW
DEVELOPS 400 NM SW OF ADAK MON MORNING AND MOVES TO 200 NM W OF
AMCHITKA AT 978 MB TUE MORNING. THIS LOW MOVES TO 175 NM NE OF SHEMYA
AT 978 MB TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 45 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

330 
FZAK52 PAFC 010022
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB 90
NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN TO 984 MB 180 
NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 45 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1210 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LOCKED INTO
PLACE WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM EASTERN RUSSIA ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE STRONG LOW WHICH MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
BERING ON SATURDAY IS WEAKENING OFF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND THIS MORNING TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY.
THIS IS A GOOD SET-UP FOR PRECIP IN BRISTOL BAY WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING FROM THE PACIFIC AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONE WITH PRECIP FALLING AS
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A MYRIAD OF OTHER SYSTEMS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OF THESE DOWN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE UPPER JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE DAY 3 TO 4
TIME PERIOD WITH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LITTLE
LESS SPREAD TODAY AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS IN THE
ENSEMBLES. PLAN TO PICK A MIDDLE GROUND AMONG THE SOLUTIONS AND
TREND THE FORECAST HEAVILY THAT WAY..ESPECIALLY IN CASES WHERE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
TREND IS TOWARD A FURTHER EAST POSITION OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WARMER AIR EAST OF
THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND SET UP POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU.
THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...BUT WILL
INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH IT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT PRECIP PRIMARILY TO THE COAST AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
OVER 1000 MILES TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AND REACH THE GULF ON MONDAY...WAY OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...

BUT ALL THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THANKS
TO A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS
OF A WEAK LOW FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR SNOWFALL IN
ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS.
THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS FIRST EVENT BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANOTHER LOW COULD MOVE UP ACROSS THE GULF...
BUT MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND THEN EVERYTHING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT...WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EXPECT A LOW TO FORM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND THE WESTERN BERING TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN QUITE COMPACT IN
SIZE...SO IT WILL ONLY AFFECT A SMALL AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING
IN BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY...MAKES IT HARD TO PINPOINT INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 132 138 140 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11