Gale Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

901 
FZAK51 PAFC 311258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY AS
A 996 MB LOW OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. A 987
MB LOW DEVELOPS 180 NM E OF SITKINAK ISLAND MON EVENING AND MOVES TO
NEAR ANCHORAGE AT 990 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW MOVES TO 120 NM
SE OF KODIAK CITY FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1210 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LOCKED INTO
PLACE WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM EASTERN RUSSIA ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE STRONG LOW WHICH MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
BERING ON SATURDAY IS WEAKENING OFF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND THIS MORNING TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY.
THIS IS A GOOD SET-UP FOR PRECIP IN BRISTOL BAY WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING FROM THE PACIFIC AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONE WITH PRECIP FALLING AS
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A MYRIAD OF OTHER SYSTEMS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OF THESE DOWN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE UPPER JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE DAY 3 TO 4
TIME PERIOD WITH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LITTLE
LESS SPREAD TODAY AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS IN THE
ENSEMBLES. PLAN TO PICK A MIDDLE GROUND AMONG THE SOLUTIONS AND
TREND THE FORECAST HEAVILY THAT WAY..ESPECIALLY IN CASES WHERE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. THE MOST NOTEWORTHY
TREND IS TOWARD A FURTHER EAST POSITION OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WARMER AIR EAST OF
THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND SET UP POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU.
THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...BUT WILL
INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH IT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT PRECIP PRIMARILY TO THE COAST AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
OVER 1000 MILES TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AND REACH THE GULF ON MONDAY...WAY OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...

BUT ALL THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THANKS
TO A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS
OF A WEAK LOW FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR SNOWFALL IN
ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS.
THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS FIRST EVENT BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANOTHER LOW COULD MOVE UP ACROSS THE GULF...
BUT MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND THEN EVERYTHING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT...WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EXPECT A LOW TO FORM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND THE WESTERN BERING TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND REMAIN QUITE COMPACT IN
SIZE...SO IT WILL ONLY AFFECT A SMALL AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING
IN BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY...MAKES IT HARD TO PINPOINT INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 132 138 140 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11