Small Craft Advisory 830, NWS Anchorage, AK

505 
FZAK52 PAFC 190038
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 160 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL AT 973 MB SAT AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST
OF COLD BAY AT 982 MB SUN AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SUN.

$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
EAST. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 12 FT FROM PORT MOLLER
E. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NUNIVAK
ISLAND N. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF KIPNUK. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
25 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEMYA W...SEAS 16 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT EXCEPT 14 FT FROM SHEMYA W. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 61N. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 61N. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW
PUSHED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES WITH A WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FAR TO THE WEST OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL HOLD FAST FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN THESE FEATURES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THEN REACHES SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT STARTED THE STRONG
WINDS HAS MOVED CLOSE TO VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT A TROUGH REMAINS
STRETCHING FROM THAT LOW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS HAS ALLOWED
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST TODAY. THE LOW IMPACTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS CENTERED NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BUT THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND STILL IS PACKING A PUNCH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THE NAM IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LARGE BERING SEA LOW BUT
OTHER THAN THAT THERE ARE NO REAL CONCERNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER COME MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND. SNOW
SHOULD REACH THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTS. KODIAK WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM AIR ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION RAIN IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE CASE FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF WILL GET A SHOT OF SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF. THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE GULF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA DRY.
FARTHER WEST ANOTHER MODERATE TO STRONG LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND BRING A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AND WIND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 155 160 165 170 172 176 179.
         STORM 175 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11