Small Craft Advisory 829, NWS Anchorage, AK

298 
FZAK51 PAFC 190028
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE 140 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT FRI NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 70 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SITKINAK ISLAND SAT EVENING THEN MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 976 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF CHANNELED AREAS. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW
PUSHED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES WITH A WARMER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FAR TO THE WEST OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL HOLD FAST FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN THESE FEATURES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THEN REACHES SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT STARTED THE STRONG
WINDS HAS MOVED CLOSE TO VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT A TROUGH REMAINS
STRETCHING FROM THAT LOW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS HAS ALLOWED
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST TODAY. THE LOW IMPACTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS CENTERED NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BUT THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND STILL IS PACKING A PUNCH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THE NAM IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LARGE BERING SEA LOW BUT
OTHER THAN THAT THERE ARE NO REAL CONCERNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER COME MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND. SNOW
SHOULD REACH THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTS. KODIAK WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM AIR ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION RAIN IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE CASE FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF WILL GET A SHOT OF SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF. THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE GULF FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA DRY.
FARTHER WEST ANOTHER MODERATE TO STRONG LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND BRING A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AND WIND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 155 160 165 170 172 176 179.
         STORM 175 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11