Small Craft Advisory 799, NWS Anchorage, AK

623 
FZAK52 PAFC 042331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 MB LOW 270 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL AT 977 MB SAT MORNING AND MOVES NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM SAT
NIGHT AT 973 MB...THEN MOVES INLAND SUN MORNING. A LOW FORMS 330 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 1004 SUN MORNING AND MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK SUN AFTERNOON AT 999 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 50 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 50 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE CURRENT WEATHER MAKER IS A LARGE LOW NEARING NUNIVAK
ISLAND IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A
SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF VERY POTENT SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT NEAR HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE THE VERY DRY SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING...RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE
TO FILL IN AS LIGHT SNOW FALLS FROM KACHEMAK BAY UP TO THE LOWER
SUSITNA VALLEY. WARM AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IS CHANGING
PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL SOON
BE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK OF LOWS WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...INITIAL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE DOWNSLOPE HOLE
IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ON THE KENAI RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE LIGHT SNOW IN ANCHORAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHUT OFF AS THE TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM AND THE UPPER HILLSIDE WITH THE LOW NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WHICH IS A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR GAP WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE NORTH AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
PARKS HIGHWAY...EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE HIGHWAY NEAR CHULITNA.

WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TIP OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA...SHUTTING OFF THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUGACH
RANGE. THIS WILL HELP BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THIS
OCCLUDED LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND COLD AIR
ADVECTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION AND THEN QUICKLY IS PUSHED EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATH
NEAR THE TIP OF THE KENAI SHOULD BRING ANCHORAGE ANOTHER SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND
NEARLY 5 INCHES OF SNOW AT BETHEL TODAY...AND UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE KING SALMON REGION. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES WESTWARD. FURTHER EAST...A FEW
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND RETURN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING EAST AND IMPACTING THE AKPEN. CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN.
HOWEVER...A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION JUST IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 BLIZZARD WARNING 125
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 150 155 165 170 171.
         GALE WARNING...120 125 129 132 138 140 141 160 172 175 176
                        179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 11