Gale Warning 834, NWS Anchorage, AK

846 
FZAK51 PAFC 041120
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS MOVES TO 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AT 988 MB...THEN DRIFTS EAST TO 25 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AT 1001 MB SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A
990 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS SAT EVENING AND THEN
MOVES TO 75 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 988 MB LATE SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 45
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND
25 KT INCREASING TO NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT
EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MAIN SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES ARE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA...AS WELL AS A 974 MB LOW IN THE
CENTRAL BERING THAT IS MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A NEW LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA MOVES TO 200 MILES NORTH OF SHEMYA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
LATE FRIDAY AGAIN MOVING EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY
SATURDAY WITH AGAIN SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MAKES THIS SYSTEM
VERY STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING AT 938 MB...WHILE
THE EUROPEAN IS FARTHER WEST AND HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO
MID 950S. ITS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IN THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS
WELL AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING THUS
FAR.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH
SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THIS EVENING MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN TOWARDS KACHEMAK BAY. DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ANCHORAGE BOWL PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND MOVES TO A LOCATION NEAR OR
SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEGINNING AROUND EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CLEARING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...AND
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE...OR WILL BE OCCURRING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN THE REMAINING AREAS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA  SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FROM THE WEST WITH A
NEAR REPEAT OF THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBLE
RE-ISSUANCE OF HIGH WIND WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. THE NEXT GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WINDS. SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL BERING COULD INVOLVE SHORT
TERM DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE
AND RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOME PART OF
THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

AS MENTIONED...WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POWERFUL LOW
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF SNOW THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101 181.
         BLIZZARD WARNING...155.
MARINE...GALES...120 125 130 132 138 150 155 160 171 175 179 180
         STORMS...165 170 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 NOV 11