Small Craft Advisory 796, NWS Anchorage, AK

429 
FZAK52 PAFC 031547 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
745 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

UPDATED 160 171 FOR HIGHER GUSTS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 135 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY EARLY EVENING AT 973 MB. A 995 MB LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO 250 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA FRI NIGHT AT 989 MB. A 997 MB LOW DEVELOPS 175 NM WEST OF
SAINT GEORGE FRI EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHENS TO 987 MB 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 22
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
745 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65
KT DURING THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
745 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

889 
FZAK52 PAFC 031752 AAB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
950 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

UPDATED 155 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 135 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY EARLY EVENING AT 973 MB. A 995 MB LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO 250 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA FRI NIGHT AT 989 MB. A 997 MB LOW DEVELOPS 175 NM WEST OF
SAINT GEORGE FRI EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHENS TO 987 MB 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 22
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
950 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO
65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
745 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65
KT DURING THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
745 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
950 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

132 
FZAK52 PAFC 032116 AAC
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
115 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

UPDATED 155 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 135 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY EARLY EVENING AT 973 MB. A 995 MB LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THU AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO 250 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA FRI NIGHT AT 989 MB. A 997 MB LOW DEVELOPS 175 NM WEST OF
SAINT GEORGE FRI EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHENS TO 987 MB 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 22
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
950 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO
65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
745 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65
KT DURING THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
115 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
950 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

493 
FZAK52 PAFC 032329
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES INLAND OVER BETHEL THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATES. A 996 MB LOW 325 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO
300 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A 988 MB LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 50 NM WEST OF ST PAUL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES TO 50 NM WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 60 KT
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING.  SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO  65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE BUT
AMPLIFIED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC UP INTO THE EASTERN BERING WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE SUBTROPICAL JET RIDES
UP AND OVER THIS RIDGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE. THIS IS CAUSING THE LOW THAT AFFECTED SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
GULF YESTERDAY TO MAKE A RAPID EXIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...
PARTIALLY DUE TO ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES CAUSING LOWER PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND MORE FOCUSED
SUBSIDENCE WITH A SHORT-WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT. SO AFTER WINDS DIMINISHED A BIT OVERNIGHT THEY HAVE INCREASED
THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW APPROACHING

THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS BECOME VERY ELONGATED DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET JUST TO ITS EAST. EXPECT TO SEE A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL NORTH OF THE PARENT LOW AND STRENGTHEN
WITH THE HELP OF THE UPPER JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK OF LOWS WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN RAPIDLY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...HOLDING ON LONGEST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.

A POWERFUL BERING SEA STORM WILL SEND A STRONG FRONT INTO THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
STRONG WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG FRONT AND TRACK OF THE
BERING SEE LOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA IT IS A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR HIGH
WINDS ALONG WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING WITH THE
NEW FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE REST OF THE LAND AREA...WIDESPREAD GALES
WILL AFFECT THE MARINE AREAS. WITH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THE QUICKEST...SO EXPECT
THESE LOW VISIBILITIES TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE WARMER AIR WILL ALSO
CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THE SUSITNA VALLEY HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN ALL SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THERE WILL BE SOME
INITIAL OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY...BUT EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND CAUSE DOWNSLOPE DRYING. SO EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.

A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AND DIMINISH SNOWFALL OR IN SOME AREAS CUT IT OFF
COMPLETELY. AS HAS OCCURRED WITH THE LAST COUPLE SYSTEMS IN THIS
AMPLIFIED FLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF AND LIKELY SOME
SNOW TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY
START AS SNOW WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. WARMER AIR WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY COASTAL REGION SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP
ARRIVES WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING AND PREVENT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WARMER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTAL AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COAST UP TO
AROUND HOOPER BAY. THEREFORE...PLAN TO UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THE COAST. FOR INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA THERE WILL BE A AS MUCH
AS 9 TO 12 HOURS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVING
INTO TO CAUSE MIXING WITH RAIN OR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER SO WILL
INCREASE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS (6 INCHES OR MORE).
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE IT INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER A
BLIZZARD WARNING. COLD AIR IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY SO AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES THIS COLD AIR COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY
SO ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN AND CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO
SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AN ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS NEWLY FORMED TRIPLE POINT LOW DEEPENS. THE NAM
MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH 90 KT AT AROUND 850 MB...BUT THE OTHER
MODELS AREN'T FAR BEHIND. WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DON'T EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE BUT IT GIVES AN IDEA OF JUST HOW
STRONG THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND GAP WINDS
WILL ADD TO ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
HIGH WINDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
ALSO BE QUITE STRONG DUE TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND RAPID PRESSURE
RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 MB PER HOUR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TO REACH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA AGAIN...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNINGS ARE
OVER BEFORE CONSIDERING ISSUING NEW WARNINGS.

AS THIS FIRST STORM EXITS ANOTHER WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING ON
FRIDAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER DUE TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER JET.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER PATTERN LOOKS MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL MOVE EVEN FASTER FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION BUT WON'T BE AS STRONG AS THE ONES
WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 181 185.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 165 170 171 172 179 180 185.
         GALE WARNING...120 125 127 128 130 132 138 140 141
                        150 160 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 11