Small Craft Advisory 771, NWS Anchorage, AK

279 
FZAK52 PAFC 261246 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR SAINT GEORGE WILL BECOME A 991 MB LOW 90 NM NORTH
OF SAND POINT WED AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THU NIGHT. A 982 MB LOW 450 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME A 974 MB LOW 120 NM NORTH OF ADAK THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ150-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-270300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
SHEMYA W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-270300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-270300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

378 
FZAK52 PAFC 262310
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW 60 NM WEST OF PORT HEIDEN MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY THURSDAY MORNING. A 980 MB LOW 400 NM WEST OF SHEMYA
MOVES TO 120 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MERGES
WITH A 977 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR COLD BAY.

$$

PKZ150-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W OF PORT MOLLER...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF PORT MOLLER...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 50
KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20
KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT . SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-271500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL 965 MB LOW RESIDES OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION BETWEEN
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHORAGE THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING COOPER LANDING...GLEN ALPS IN ANCHORAGE...AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS NORTHEAST OF VALDEZ.

A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE
Y-K DELTA REGION THAT IS PUSHING NORTH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
POURING SOUTH CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TAKING
LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE WEAKENING AND THEN
MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
FROM THE MAT-SU VALLEY SOUTH TO ANCHORAGE FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTAL...

STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH RISING FREEZING LEVELS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
ZONE. THOMPSON PASS SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS A RESULT OF
THESE RISING FREEZING LEVELS...AND THE MELTING OF THE SNOWFALL AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISE OF RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BIG CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KODIAK...AND
WITH SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS INDICATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND MODEL FORECASTS...DAMAGING WEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR ANCHORAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL MORE RAPIDLY. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN END BY LATE MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES PAST THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A
TRACE TO PERHAPS ONE INCH OF WET SLUSHY SNOW...STICKING MAINLY ON
GRASS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES...WILL FALL NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH
PERHAPS ONE TO THREE INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOW POTENTIAL FOR ANCHORAGE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY ZONE...BUT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWS INTERACTING
WITH ONE ANOTHER MOVE FURTHER APART THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD AIR
SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST IS HELPING TO CHANGE
THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS KING SALMON.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY TONIGHT MOST
AREAS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRUSHES THE REGION FROM WEST THROUGH
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
FROM THE WESTERN CAPES EAST THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A RELATIVELY WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS...AS WELL AS RAIN OUT AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE. IT WILL MOVE OVER THE
PRIBILOFS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...171
MARINE...GALES...125 129 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
                 176 179
         STORMS...120 130 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 OCT 11